While off-the-field storylines have dominated the headlines leading up to Sunday's Bills-Eagles showdown in Philadelphia, the real on-field playoff implications of the game are of much greater significance.
Bills vs. Eagles 2015 live stream: Time, TV schedule and how to watch online
LeSean McCoy returns to Philadelphia for the first time since his trade to Buffalo in March.
The winner and loser of this game could see a huge swing in their postseason chances depending on the outcome. Using the probabilities at the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator, the Eagles’ playoff odds would increase to 51 percent if they win and drop to 28 percent if they lose; the Bills’ odds would rise to 34 percent if they win and fall to 14 percent if they lose.
The Eagles and Bills are both on the periphery of the playoff picture, and are entering must-win mode down the stretch if they're going to be playing meaningful games in January. Philly is locked in a three-way tie atop the NFC East, but trails Washington in the standings due to tiebreakers. Buffalo currently holds the No. 8 seed in the AFC, but is just a game back of the Chiefs and Jets in the wild card race.
Left for dead after a miserable November that included a crushing three-game losing streak, the Eagles are firmly back in the battle for the division crown following their stunning upset of the Patriots in Week 13. At 5-7, however, they are only in this favorable position because of their residence in the mess of mediocrity known as the NFC East.
Yes, we checked the rule book, and someone has to be declared the winner. Who that team will be is no clearer now with four weeks remaining in the regular season than it was when the season kicked off back in September. The computers like the Eagles: both Football Outsiders (42.7 percent) and ESPN's Football Power Index (49.7) give them the best odds to be champs among the four rivals.
The Eagles' main advantage is that they play their next three contests at home, while the New York Giants (two home games) and Washington (one) have less favorable slates. Philly also finishes up with a game at MetLife Stadium, where it has lost to the Giants just once in six all-time meetings there.
The Bills might have saved their season last week with a 30-21 win over the Texans, but they've still got plenty of work to do in order to end their 15-year playoff drought. It might take double-digit wins to earn a wild card in the AFC, which means that Buffalo has to be flawless in the final four games. That's a daunting task for a team that has put together back-to-back wins just once this season.
If they want to crash the postseason party, the Bills need to remember their bread-and-butter winning formula: a ground-and-pound offense that controls the tempo of the game. They have the league's fourth-ranked rushing attack and have run for at least 125 yards in each of their six wins. Taking the pressure off quarterback Tyrod Taylor is key -- the Bills are 0-6 when attempting at least 30 passes and 6-0 when they throw the ball fewer than 30 times.
The Eagles have really struggled to contain the run game and could be in trouble if they can't stop LeSean McCoy and company. They are 27th in rushing yards allowed, 23rd in yards per rush, and are one of just two teams that has surrendered 200-plus yards on the ground twice this season. If McCoy hits triple digits on the ground, it might be a long afternoon in Philly.
How to watch
When: 1 p.m. ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
TV: CBS
Announcers: Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
Online: NFL Game Pass
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