In this season filled with parity and mediocrity, it is fitting that two sub-.500 teams will face off in mid-December with a division title on the line. That's the situation for Sunday at Lucas Oil Stadium, where the 6-7 Indianapolis Colts host the 6-7 Houston Texans in a pivotal AFC South battle with huge playoff implications for both teams.
Texans vs. Colts 2015 picks and predictions: Houston expected to get 1st win in Indianapolis
The Colts are 13-0 all-time at home against the Texans.
And given the unfathomable number of quarterback injuries suffered in 2015, it's also apt that each club will have a backup signal caller under center for this crucial showdown of first-place teams. Andrew Luck returned to practice on a limited basis for the Colts this week, but Matt Hasselbeck is expected to get his fifth straight start despite nursing his own injuries. For the Texans, T.J. Yates gets the starting nod while Brian Hoyer remains in the concussion protocol.
The winner of this matchup puts themselves in the drivers’ seat to win the division, gaining a one-game lead with two games to go. Per the projections at the New York Times’ Playoff Simulator, if the Colts win, their chances of winning the division increase from 51 percent to 92 percent; if the Texans win, their division odds go from 47 percent to 88 percent.
For all that has gone wrong in Indy this season, there was always the feeling that playing in the pitiful AFC South made the Colts a virtual lock to reach the playoffs given their historical dominance of the division. And that was true for the first three-quarters of the season ... until they suffered a shocking defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday. The loss snapped the Colts' 16-game divisional win streak, which was the longest of its kind in NFL history.
While the Colts’ division-wide invincibility might have disappeared, their mastery over the Texans remains intact. They are a ridiculous 24-3 all-time against Houston, including a perfect 13-0 record at home. The Texans have rarely been competitive in those matchups at Indianapolis, either, with only three of the 13 decided by fewer than seven points.
The experts, however, are overwhelmingly picking the Texans to win their first-ever road game against the Colts. Nearly all of the guys at CBS Sports have Houston, and the story is the same for our panel here at SB Nation headquarters.
| Week 15 | Ryan Van Bibber | Stephen White | Joel Thorman | David Fucillo | Danny Kelly | Matt Ufford | PFT Commenter | OddsShark |
| HOU vs IND | HOU | HOU | HOU | IND | HOU | HOU | HOU | HOU |
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