Danny Kelly: What in the hell is the deal with the Falcons?
What happened to the Falcons?
Danny Kelly and Stephen White discuss the reasons for the Atlanta Falcons’ collapse.
Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports
Atlanta shot out to a 5-0 start with wins over Philly, the Giants, Cowboys, Houston and Washington and they looked like a brand new team under Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan. Julio Jones was on record receiving pace. Devonta Freeman looked like the breakout player of the year. Matt Ryan was rejuvenated. The defense looked brand new and playing fast and tough. They were scoring 32.4 points per game while giving up just 22.4 in that stretch.
Then they hit a wall. Since that Oct. 11 win over Washington, they've lost five of their last six games (the lone win was when they squeaked by the Titans) and those losses in a few cases have come to teams that were struggling at that time (Tampa Bay, New Orleans, San Francisco, Indy). Over their last six games, they've averaged just 16.3 points per game while giving up 20.3 ppg.
Injuries have been an issue, but that’s an enormous offensive drop off. Is there anything you’ve seen that can explain what’s going on here?
Stephen White: I hesitate to assign blame to a particular guy or thing because, as usual, it's not a simple as that. However, the one huge problem on defense has been the lack of a pass rush. You know I was, and still am, a big fan of their first-round pick Vic Beasley, but I would be lying to you if I told you I understood what they were doing with that kid. Even though he does a decent job vs. the run whenever he happens to be in there, the Falcons still don't seem comfortable playing him on early downs or running personnel. That means he misses a lot of opportunities to rush against play action pass that can sometimes favor good speed rushers. He also only recently started actually using his speed rush as much as he should. In the early part of the season and especially during this losing streak Beasley was doing waaaaay too much running down the middle of folks when he wasn't spinning in place like a top.
For some reason, they have him lining up the majority of time to the left. Now that works for Cliff Avril, but most speed rushers rush from the right because most quarterbacks are right handed, and on the left side, speed rushers tend to go too far up field which allows mobile quarterbacks to break contain to their throwing hand, a big no no. But hey, they did it, and he got some good rushes in Sunday against Minnesota rookie right tackle T.J. Clemmings, but he still didn't end up with any sacks. And of course they lost that game.
And before Falcons fans "well actually" me, I understand that O'Brien Schofield has played "better" than Beasley on the right side, but he isn't the future of the franchise. And I mean its not like Schofield is lighting it up on the stat sheet either.
It's not just Beasley, but the Falcons use a heavy personnel group on first down most of the time and those guys are not pass rushers in general. I know this is somewhat similar to what the Seahawks do which makes since because, duh. The problem as I see it is that the Falcons don't have a Michael Bennett — someone who makes hell against the run and can get after the quarterback inside or outside. So, again, if you throw on them on early downs, as long as they don't blitz, the opposing quarterback is likely to have plenty of time to go through their reads.
What about the Falcons offense?
Stephen: Again I hesitate to blame one guy, but it's basically all Matt Ryan's fault.
OK, not really.
But the dude has been reaaaaally loose with the ball of late, especially backed up. That is a huge no-no and those turnovers have been killers. Both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman have had some fumbles as well. If the Falcons are going to turn things back in their favor they must do a better job of ball security.
Is there anything else you have seen that might have contributed to their recent woes?
Danny: I’d agree that the main culprit, at least the most visible one, is certainly Matt Ryan. He has four red zone turnovers this year, has tossed eight picks during their slide (the last six games, in which they’ve gone 1-5), and at times has made the kind of mistakes you’d really not expect from a veteran passer. You watch some of his picks and you’re sitting there wondering what in the hell he was seeing out there.
The offense in general just has not executed the way they did during their torrid five-game win streak to start the year. They have turned the ball over 13 times in the last six games, and the identity has shifted to more of a pass-happy system as the year’s gone on. This could be partly because of game flow and situational football, but during the Falcons’ first five games, Ryan threw the ball 185 times and they ran it 156 times, scoring 10 touchdowns on the ground, which is certainly what Dan Quinn had in mind coming to Atlanta from the Seahawks. Conversely, over their last six games, Ryan’s thrown it 249 times to just 141 rushing attempts.
The most telling stat here is that Atlanta has only hit paydirt on the ground once during their 1-5 slide over the past month and a half. Obviously the loss of Devonta Freeman is a factor, but the splits are staggering.
You have to wonder if Kyle Shanahan and/or his system is to blame as well. There are whispers that the offense is too predictable.
I read a really interesting article over at The Falcoholic that wondered if Kyle Shanahan is a Quarterback Killer. They took a look at Shanahan's history specifically with Donovan McNabb and Robert Griffin III, and specifically, his inability or refusal to adapt and fit the offense to his quarterback. Is Matt Ryan really a roll-out, bootleg quarterback? Does he excel doing the things that Shanahan's offense calls for? While players are mostly supportive of their coach through this slump, you start to wonder if there's any finger pointing or questions going on behind the scenes with that. Roddy White has been the most vocal grumbler about all this, but that could just be an outlier. I have stated earlier in the year that I actually really like what Shanahan does on offense, but the results of late have me questioning my own opinion on that.
What do you think of the whole Kyle Shanahan background story? Do you think it’s a factor here, or just another case of “blame the offensive coordinator” that naturally comes up when a team is struggling?
Stephen: I've never been a Kyle Shanahan fan. It's not just that he has been inflexible with his system but also his in-game play calling has left a lot to be desired in my opinion. Having said that, I don't necessarily think he has been any more of a problem than anybody else. I certainly question him calling a passing play when backed up against the Colts, for instance, a pass that ended up being intercepted for a game tying touchdown after the Falcons had a nice lead for much of that game. At the same time, if Matt Ryan is who everyone tries to keep convincing us he is, you would like to think you could trust him in those situations to make better decisions and throws.
Could Shanahan be better? Absolutely. But so could everybody else.
Looking for a jump start
Danny: It’s going to help to get Devonta Freeman back this week; the Falcon offense was clearly different without his explosive and dynamic abilities out of the backfield. He should in theory help them get back to the balanced run-pass attack that made them so successful early on the season, plus provide Matt Ryan a dump-off option underneath, because as you noted above, they are just way too one-dimensional in feeding Julio Jones. They need to find someone else that can contribute more regularly in the passing game.
That's where the return of Devin Hester could also have a jump start effect this week. First off, he could provide a field position boost — Hester led the league in punt return average and total return yards last year so a few explosive returns here and there can have a big psychological boost to an offense. Additionally, he produced 38 catches for 504 yards and two touchdowns last year, and Shanahan could have some creative ways to get him involved in mind. He's still a threat to score from pretty much anywhere on the field, so that kind of weapon in the offense, even if he's only getting limited touches, could be a boon for this stagnant unit.
Stephen: Maybe the most confusing thing on offense for the Falcons at this point is why they have been so reluctant to include Roddy White in the game plan. Here is a guy that had 80 catches just last year in 14 games and he will be lucky to end up with half that this season. I know he wasn’t 100 percent at the start of the season, but the guy has been active for all 12 games and has caught more than three passes in only two of those contests. When he first started grumbling about not getting the ball, I thought it was really poor timing because the Falcons were winning, the offense was rolling, and Roddy looked like even slower than normal. Now, I have to say, I think he has a point.
In fairness his two most productive games catches wise were the last two games the Falcons played, both of which they lost, so maybe the Falcons realize this too and are trying to rectify the situation.
They’re relying way too much on Julio Jones in the passing game. It’s great that Jones has almost 100 catches with five games left in the season, but he is also averaging a career low in yards per catch, probably owing to defenses being geared up to limit his impact. When you feed a guy the ball that much, even when the coverage is rolled up to him a lot, you also tend to become very predictable on offense. No need to cover the whole field if you know where the ball is going. The Falcons’ second highest reception total is from Devonta Freeman, and even he has caught 46 fewer passes than Julio. Now, Jones is definitely a fantastic player, but Shanahan and Ryan need to get together and find a way to distribute to the ball to other guys as well to keep defenses honest.
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