NFL Draft trade value chart explained
From Jimmy Johnson’s trade chart to more modern approaches.
One of the most exciting moments during any NFL Draft is the pick swap. Teams, eager not to let a coveted player slip through their hands, aggressively trade up in order to secure their target.
But how do these teams figure out how much to send away in a trade? The answer for the past quarter of a century has been the draft trade value chart.
Credited to former Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins coach Jimmy Johnson, the chart allocates points to every pick in the draft. The first overall selection is worth 3000 points, the second worth 2600 points, and so on. The decrease in value lessens pick to pick with the final two selections worth a difference of only 0.3 points. For many teams, the chart is the resource for Draft Day swaps.
The chart does have its critics, however. First-round picks are weighted in such a way that it almost never makes sense to trade into the top 10 (though many teams still do). The actual return on the players selected in those spots doesn’t often equate to the compensation required to acquire them.
Take the Robert Griffin III trade. The St. Louis Rams owned the No. 2 overall pick (worth 2600 points) in the 2012 NFL Draft, the slot most expected the Baylor quarterback to come off the board. However, the Rams drafted Sam Bradford just two years earlier and did not feel compelled to give up on him so quickly.
Washington, desperate for a signal caller, sent St. Louis the sixth overall pick in the same draft (1600 points), their second-round pick (520 points) and two future first-rounders. While picks later years are devalued, those two selections ultimately combined for more than 3,300 points.
Griffin went on to win Rookie of the Year honors but trailed off soon thereafter due to a serious knee injury. Even had he remained healthy, Washington fell behind their NFC East foes due to the dearth of draft picks created by the RGIII trade.
Many other pick swap horror stories exist. The common thread between most of them is an NFL general manager overvaluing the top picks.
As such, alternative charts have been crafted that consider these factors. Chase Stuart of Football Perspective built a chart based on the approximate value of players selected in each draft slot. While top picks are still given extra weight, the difference isn’t quite so dramatic as in Johnson’s traditional trade chart.
For example, if the Chicago Bears decided to trade up from No. 7 to No. 2 this year to acquire Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota, Stuart's chart suggests the difference between the picks is the exact value of their second-round pick, No. 51. Now, market factors would likely require the Bears to offer up at least a little more (other teams are likely to pursue Mariota), but the trade wouldn't cripple Chicago the way the RGIII trade did for Washington.
How draft picks are valued in trades varies by organization. In many cases, the difference in approach can kill a trade before it’s even discussed. However, that will not stop trades from happening in this year’s draft. Teams get desperate, and desperation creates an atmosphere conducive to pick swapping.
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