Ah, the joys of evaluating quarterbacks during preseason action.
Do NFL preseason stats mean anything for quarterbacks?
Danny Kelly has a closer look at what the numbers from exhibition games can tell us about quarterback play in the regular season.
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
E.J. Manuel, a surprise first-round pick for the Bills in 2013, got off to a pretty intriguing start in Buffalo, completing 78 percent of his passes in his first two games while throwing two touchdowns and posting a QB rating of 112. A knee injury forced him to miss the final two preseason games, but the small sample size had people hopeful. A year earlier, Russell Wilson took the 2012 preseason by storm, throwing five touchdowns and rushing for another while posting a 110.3 QB rating, good enough for him to beat out big-ticket free agent Matt Flynn for the starting job.
Wilson never looked back. Manuel’s first two seasons have been forgettable, and he’s fighting for a starting role.
In general, preseason stats are exceedingly tough to rely on, particularly for the quarterback position, where an extreme number of variables are at play -- vanilla schemes by both sides, questionable competition, lack of chemistry -- you name it.
Still, let’s take a look back at the 2013 season to see how predictive the preseason was. I set a few benchmarks to eliminate spot players and third-stringers. I set the bar low.
Benchmarks: 20 completions, 50.0 QB rating or better
While these benchmarks were low, the group leftover seemed to represent most of the pool of potential starters in the NFL. It included 62 quarterbacks. Of those 62 signal callers, 32 were established starters or veteran backups. That left 30 passers that were either rookies or still in the “developmental” stage of their careers. Nine never touched the football during the regular season, and a further 10 didn’t see enough action to (less than 75 passes) to make much of an impact. Eight of these 30 quarterbacks would feature on a large scale.
Here’s a look at the completion percentage in the preseason compared to the regular season for those upstart quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts (still a very small sample size) in the regular season.
From that same group, here’s how their quarterback rating compared from preseason to the regular season.
There’s just not enough there to make sweeping conclusions based on the data alone.
Lived up to the hype
Two quarterbacks that made waves in the 2014 preseason lived up to the hype.
Preseason: 30 of 49 (61.2 percent) for 283 yards (5.8 YPA) with 5 TD, 0 INT; 111.2 rating
Season: 259 of 402 (64.4 percent) for 2,919 yards (7.3 YPA) with 14 TD, 12 INT; 85.2 rating
There were a lot of Bridgewater doubters when he was chosen 32nd overall by the Vikings last year, but he shut a lot of those people up with a solid rookie campaign. His 16-of-20 performance in Preseason Week 2 vs. the Cardinals was a nice foreshadowing of his eventual rise to starter, where he engineered an 83-yard drive that he capped with a game-winning touchdown pass to Rodney Smith. He played well in the regular season as well, improving on his completion percentage and yards per attempt along the way.
Preseason: 30 of 45 (66.7 percent) for 326 yards (7.2 YPA) with 4 TD, 1 INT; 108.2 rating
Season: 348 for 599 (58.1 percent) for 3,270 yards (5.5 YPA) with 21 TD, 12 INT; 76.6 rating
Carr’s signature game came in the fourth week of the preseason last year against Seattle, where he completed 11 of 13 passes for 143 yards and three touchdowns, part of the time against some of the players from Seattle’s first-team defense. His performance in that game helped him win the quarterback competition in Oakland. He didn’t look back, putting together a promising rookie campaign. His raw numbers weren’t eye-popping, but he did throw the ball 599 times, playing from behind much of the time, and still managed to impress.
Fools Gold
A few quarterbacks did not match their preseason performances once the real games went live.
Preseason: 32 of 51 (62.7 percent) for 521 yards (10.2 YPA), 2 TD to 0 INT, 110 QB rating
Season: 280 of 475 (58.9 percent) for 2,908 yards (6.1 YPA), 11 TD to 17 INT, 69.5 rating
Bortles looked good during the preseason, really good. He was in command of the offense, throwing the ball downfield with authority. There was optimism that this was the guy who could help turn the Jaguars franchise around. However, when he was called upon to be the starter by Week 4, his interception rate spiked quickly, and his yards-per-attempt dipped before plummeting late in the year. Bortles is by no means done, but this is a good example of why it’s best to temper expectations based on preseason play.
Kirk Cousins, Washington
Preseason: 35 of 54 (64.8 percent) for 370 yards, 4 TD to 1 INT, 101.6 QB rating
Season: 126 of 204 (61.8 percent) for 1,710 yards, 10 TD to 9 INT, 86.4 QB rating
Cousins had a very promising preseason, including a 14-of-20 effort with 122 yards and two touchdowns against the Ravens that fueled the argument that Cousins should be starting over Robert Griffin III. However, when he grabbed the starting job in Week 2, after RG3 dislocated his ankle, he wasn't able to hold on to the job because of too many turnovers (nine picks and two lost fumbles). Colt McCoy took over in Week 8; Cousins didn't throw another pass all year.
Preseason: 47 of 68 (69.1 percent) for 659 yards (9.7 YPA), 2 TD and 2 INT, 97.6 QB rating
Season: 107 of 179 (59.8 percent) for 1,412 yards (7.9 YPA), 8 TD and 7 INT, 83.4 QB rating
Mettenberger got a shot with the Titans in his rookie year when Jake Locker was lost for the season. Starting six games, his completion percentage dropped below 60 and he threw a few too many picks. While he did look intriguing at times, his season was cut short by injury. In the end, his performance wasn't enough to acquire the full backing of the coaching staff and front office, and Tennessee used the second overall pick to select Marcus Mariota. However, Mettenberger did show enough that he's been a frequent topic of trade rumors, and he may get a shot elsewhere before it's all said and done.
Still question marks
We’re still not really sure what we’ve got with these quarterbacks...
Preseason: 44 of 74 (59.5 percent) for 588 yards, 5 TD to 0 INT, 107.3 QB rating
Season: 4 of 5 (80 percent) for 60 yards (12.0 YPA), 0 TD and 0 INT, 116.7 QB rating
Eli Manning has started 167 straight games. What are you gonna do?
Preseason: 29 of 49 (59.2 percent) for 423 yards (8.6 YPA), 2 TD to 2 INT
Season: 4 of 10 (40 percent) for 52 yards (5.2 YPA), 1 TD to 0 INT
If it weren't for that neck thing in 2011, Peyton Manning probably wouldn't have missed a game in his life. Sucks to be his backup.
Preseason: 46 of 79 (58.2 percent) for 618 yards (7.8 YPA), 5 TD to 1 INT, 99 QB rating
Season: 19 of 27 (70.4 percent) for 182 yards (6.7 YPA), 1 TD to 0 INT, 101.2 QB rating
Garoppolo put together a solid preseason last year but only got spot duty in six games, backing up Tom Brady. We may get more of a feel for what kind of player he is if Brady’s suspension holds.
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The preseason can be confusing when it comes to quarterbacks. It’s a particularly difficult position to evaluate in terms of the translation to regular season success because there are so few starting jobs available and upstart players get so little time to prove their mettle. At the end of the day, these preseason performances must be judged individually, and be careful to include a quarterback’s observable traits and attributes -- his skill set -- when comparing the raw numbers.
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