Packers vs. Cardinals preview, 2016 NFL playoffs: Arizona presents tough test for Green Bay’s offense
These two teams met in Week 16 and the Cardinals blasted the Packers, 38-8. Will it be a different result on Saturday night in the desert?
Following the most prolific and winningest regular season in team history, the Arizona Cardinals are aiming to cap off their historic campaign with the franchise's first-ever Super Bowl ring. The road to Santa Clara begins Saturday night with a Divisional round matchup against the Green Bay Packers on NBC.
The 2015 Cardinals rewrote the team record books, finishing with franchise bests in wins (13), total yards (6,533), points (489) and scoring margin (+176). Now, for probably the first time, they are playoff favorites according to the sportsbooks and the computers. Bovada lists them with the best odds to hoist the Vince Lombardi trophy, while ESPN’s Football Power Index also has them as the favorites to win it all.
Although they don’t boast the league’s best record, there are plenty of reasons to like the Cardinals’ chances to end the season with a signature win. They are one of two teams -- along with Seattle -- that are in the top five in both offense and defense in Football Outsiders’ efficiency ratings. They also possess arguably the most balanced and versatile attack in the league. Arizona is the only team that ranks in the top 10 in both passing yards and rushing yards per game.
The Cardinals have been tested this season, and their sloppy performance in Week 17 against the Seahawks notwithstanding, have thrived against the best competition. They went 4-2 against teams above .500, including a 30-point dismantling of the Packers in late December. They also have history on their side, at least for this weekend's game in Glendale. The team is 4-0 all-time at home in the playoffs, the best record among active franchises.
The Packers might be underdogs but they shouldn’t lack for confidence heading into this matchup. Green Bay is coming off a resounding 35-18 win against Washington last weekend, finally getting the offense cranked up and showing that the Packers are still a team to be feared in January.
They've also been in this position before, facing the pressure to win on the road in the playoffs. The last time the Packers were the wild card entrant in 2010, they rode a late-season hot streak all the way to the franchise's fourth Super Bowl crown. Could it be deja vu all over again? Similar to this year's club, the 2010 team won 10 regular season games and started their postseason run with a Wild Card round victory over an NFC East team (Eagles).
Digits
In the win over Washington, the Packers suddenly showed the ability to gain yards in chunks, put points on the board and operate an effective “hurry-up” offense that had been missing during their miserable 4-6 stretch to end the regular season. Two of the biggest keys to their resurgence was establishing the run game (141 yards on 32 carries) and getting great protection up front with heavy sets. Rodgers was pressured on only six of his 37 dropbacks, the lowest rate he faced all season.
The lingering question coming off that breakout performance is whether the Packers’ offense is really fixed, or it was merely the product of a favorable matchup and facing a subpar Washington defense. While the eye test might lean towards the former, the numbers point to the latter. Washington entered Sunday ranked 28th overall, 26th against the run and 25th against the pass on defense.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, are among the league’s top defenses in points, passing yards, rushing yards and total yards allowed. Also, Arizona already showed it can neutralize the Packers’ offense in Week 16, holding them to a season-low eight points and 178 total yards. Still, it’s hard to count out a Green Bay team that has plenty of postseason experience plus a two-time NFL MVP quarterback with a Super Bowl ring and his signature swagger back.
The Cardinals also have the more talented and robust offense in this matchup, one that Green Bay is not set up well to defend. They continually attack downfield in the passing game and thrive on explosive plays. Carson Palmer finished with the league's highest yards-per-attempt average and the highest average pass length (air yards). Overall, the team ranked second with 33 plays that gained at least 30 yards this season.
The Packers allowed 27 plays of 30-plus yards, tied for the ninth-most in the NFL. Green Bay’s pass defense has been above average overall, but there is some concern in the secondary because they start two rookie cornerbacks. That could be trouble against a veteran gunslinger like Palmer. The Packers also have been vulnerable to vertical passing schemes, ranking just 14th against deep passes (16-plus yards downfield) in Football Outsiders’ ratings.
Who to Watch
If the Packers are going to find the offensive balance needed to control the clock and keep Arizona’s high-powered offense off the field, the X-factor will be the effectiveness of running back Eddie Lacy. Coming off back-to-back seasons of 1,100-plus yards on the ground, Lacy was a huge disappointment in 2015 with just 758 rushing yards.
The game against Washington was a microcosm of his Jekyll-and-Hyde season: he had just 4 yards on six carries in the first half, then exploded for 57 yards on eight carries in the second half. The Packers need more of that “good” Lacy to show up on Saturday if they’re going to have a chance to upset the Cardinals.
For Arizona, the pressure is on Carson Palmer to continue his MVP-caliber season and lead the Cardinals to the NFC Championship for just the second time in franchise history. Palmer has put together the finest campaign of his career, but there is still one hole in his resume: a playoff win. The 36-year-old signal caller is 0-2 in the postseason, and is the only remaining starting quarterback among the final eight teams that hasn't earned a playoff victory.
How to Watch
When: 8:15 p.m. ET
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
TV: NBC
Commentators: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Online: NBC Sports
Odds
The Cardinals are 7-point favorites and the over/under is set at 50, according to OddsShark.com.
Preliminary Judgment
Nearly all of the experts are going with Arizona to beat Green Bay. Every guy on the eight-person CBS Sports panel has the Cardinals while the majority of ESPN’s analysts also are picking the home team. Here at SB Nation headquarters, our entire crew is siding with Arizona.
Further Reading
For more on the Packers, check out Acme Packing Company. Everything you need to know about the Cardinals can be found at Revenge of the Birds.
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