The two big storylines heading into Sunday's AFC Championship between the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos revolve around maybe the final duel between Tom Brady and Peyton Manning and the trash talk both teams have exchanged this week. But there are a number of other subplots worth following that will probably have a bigger role in the outcome of the game than those two.
The AFC Championship is much more than Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning
Believe it or not, there’s more to this game Brady-Manning XVII.
The Patriots and Broncos battled for the No. 1 seed in the AFC until the final Sunday of the regular season, in which New England fell to the Dolphins on the road and Denver rallied to defeat the Chargers after Manning relieved Brock Osweiler at quarterback. Manning didn't turn the ball over during the Broncos' Divisional round game last week, but he also didn't throw a touchdown pass. Brady, meanwhile, threw for 302 yards and two scores in the Patriots' victory over the Chiefs.
But given Brady’s career struggles at Mile High Stadium, it’s far from a guarantee he’ll put up gaudy numbers Sunday afternoon. Home-field advantage is possibly the biggest edge the Broncos have over the Patriots in this matchup.
Brady’s ugly history in Denver
Denver is the place where Brady has experienced the most failure throughout his career. He owns a 2-6 record at Mile High and has lost his last two playoff games there -- the 2013 AFC Championship and 2005 Divisional round.
Former Patriots safety and current NBC analyst Rodney Harrison said this week he thinks the altitude has been Brady's undoing.
“It’s so hard from a quarterback’s perspective. If you’re not used to throwing in it, it’s different. It’s completely different,” Harrison said, via the Boston Herald. “And it’s completely different as a player. You think you’re in shape, you’ve been training for six or seven months, and you go out there and you’re running around the stadium to get warmed up, and you’re gasping for air.”
The Patriots were in control of the No. 1 seed heading into the final six weeks of the season. But then they went 2-4 down the stretch and handed it over to the Broncos. If the Pats lose Sunday, they’ll have their sluggish end to the season to blame.
Patriots’ success against No. 1 defenses
In theory, Brady’s struggles in Denver combined with the Broncos’ top-ranked defense should make things difficult for the Patriots in this game. But under Bill Belichick, the Pats are undefeated against No. 1 defenses in the playoffs.
When Tom Brady has faced the NFL's No. 1 defense in the postseason, his teams are 3-0 (all road games) and won the Super Bowl all 3 seasons
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) January 20, 2016
The Patriots' most recent victory over the Seahawks in last year's Super Bowl is especially impressive, considering they overcame a 10-point halftime deficit. Brady was a perfect 9 for 9 in the final drive, connecting with Julian Edelman for the game-winning touchdown.
The Patriots put up 24 points against Denver Nov. 29 and led by 21 points in the third quarter as well. But then their offense stalled, though injuries are the most likely culprit for that. The Patriots team that will visit Denver this weekend is very different than the one that came in late November.
Previous matchup is irrelevant
By the time C.J. Anderson rushed for the game-winning touchdown in Week 11, the Patriots were playing without Julian Edelman, Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola, Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower. Four of those five players -- maybe not Collins -- are nearly guaranteed to be active Sunday.
Edelman’s impact will probably be the most noticeable, considering the Patriots convert more than 50 percent of their third downs with him in the lineup this season compared to 32 percent when he’s sidelined. He caught 10 passes for 100 yards in the Patriots’ victory over the Chiefs.
Though Edelman and Gronkowski will get the majority of the attention, Hightower’s presence shouldn’t be discounted either. Before Hightower exited the game Nov. 29, Denver had 43 yards on 15 carries. When he left, the Broncos put up 136 yards on 17 carries.
The Broncos will look very different, too, with Manning under center instead of Osweiler. Osweiler was mediocre against the Pats last time around, completing 23 of 42 passes for 270 yards with one touchdown and an interception.
Given Manning’s woeful performance for much of the season, it’s uncertain whether he’ll be a definitive upgrade for the Broncos Sunday. Despite only playing in 10 games, he finished second in the league in interceptions and ranked last in QB rating.
Even though DeMarcus Ware will play in this game after missing the previous matchup, the Broncos' defense will probably be in worse shape thanks to Chris Harris' aching shoulder.
Peyton is stealing Belichick’s lines
Between the Broncos calling Brady a “whiner” and Gronkowski saying Denver “likes to give low blows,” some nasty barbs have been exchanged this week. But Manning and Belichick have managed to stay above the fray with some lighthearted ribbing.
Following the Broncos' win over the Steelers Sunday, Manning declared he was "on to New England" -- an obvious knockoff of Belichick's infamous "we're on to Cincinnati" line following the Patriots Monday night debacle against the Chiefs last September.
When Belichick was asked about Manning’s impersonation, he shot down the question in his quintessential dry fashion.
Belichick on Peyton quoting him after game: "I haven't really given it any thought at all. Is that going to be the big story of the week?"
— Ryan Hannable (@RyanHannable) January 18, 2016 After last season's AFC Championship, Belichick yelled the Patriots were "on to Seattle." Regardless of who wins Sunday, that line may make another appearance at a podium postgame.
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