The Patriots were doomed the second they lost home-field advantage
New England can point to two losses over heavy underdogs as the reason they had to play the AFC title game in Denver.
Perhaps the most meaningful game in the 2015 NFL season came on Dec. 6, when the 10-point underdog Philadelphia Eagles beat the Patriots in New England, 35-28. It was only the second loss of the season for the Patriots at the time, but it set in motion events that would lead to them losing home-field advantage in the playoffs. And we were reminded Sunday how vital home field is to the Patriots to get to the Super Bowl.
New England has consistently been the most dominant team in the past 15 years, and one key is their ability to play the vast majority of their playoff games at home. The numbers are eye-popping -- since their championship run began in 2001, the Patriots are 15-3 at home and 3-4 on the road in the playoffs (they are also 4-2 in Super Bowls). They have lost their last three road playoff games, including Sunday's 20-18 thriller to the Denver Broncos. All three losses were in the AFC Championship and all three were to Peyton Manning-quarterbacked teams.
The lopsided home nature of the Patriots’ playoff run is set up by having the best (or sometimes second-best) record in the regular season. The Patriots have been a No. 1 or No. 2 seed the last six seasons and have not played in the Wild Card round since 2009. They have been lucky to play in a generally weak AFC East, but also take care of business by virtually never losing regular season home games, especially ones as heavy favorites against the Eagles in Week 13.
How rare was that Week 13 loss to the Eagles? It was only the second time since 2001 that the Patriots lost at home to a non-division team that finished the season below .500 (a 2012 Week 2 loss to the Cardinals was the other). The loss to the Eagles came despite the Patriots having a 14-0 lead and outgaining the Eagles 427 to 248 yards. It was the first time since the Patriots' 2001 Super Bowl run where they lost a game they led by 14 or more points at home.
The loss was bizarre in that the Eagles scored on a blocked punt, punt return and 99-yard interception return. It was the second consecutive loss for the Patriots after starting the season 10-0 and both saw 14-point leads blown.
The Eagles game was a body blow, but the Patriots still had plenty of time to secure home field. Going into Week 16, they were 12-2 and led the Broncos by two games for the best record. The only way they would lose home field was to lose at the Jets and Dolphins while the Broncos beat the Bengals and Chargers.
The Broncos took care of their end, albeit by the skin of their teeth in an overtime win over the Bengals. They also needed a fourth-quarter comeback and the resurrection of Peyton Manning to beat the 4-12 Chargers. In Week 16, the Patriots lost in overtime to the Jets. That was bad but still not fatal. The Jets were fighting for the playoffs and have always played the Patriots tough. New England still had Week 17 at Miami against a Dolphins team playing out the string under a lame-duck coach.
It was déjà vu all over again -- just like in the Eagles game, the Patriots were 10-point favorites against the Dolphins, yet played listless and flat. It’s true that they were dealing with key injuries, but they played way too conservatively, especially in the first half. A team that had a hard time running the ball all season still ran 27 times vs. 25 passes and even ran on two third-and-8 situations and once on third-and-14. Coach Bill Belichick looked like he was coaching a preseason game, where the emphasis was on staying healthy and not aggressively trying to score.
The Dolphins were no sleeper team waiting to pull an upset. They had lost three in a row and five of six, and were planning for the offseason. Yet, they played like a team with something on the line, as opposed to the Patriots, outgaining the Pats 438-196 yards. The headline on Pats Pulpit after the game summed it up: “Did the Patriots even try to win?”
The impact of the losses to the Eagles and Dolphins manifested themselves in the playoffs. As the No. 2 seed, the Patriots needed the Steelers to knock off the Broncos to ensure a Pittsburgh vs. New England AFC Championship. When that didn't happen, it meant a trip to Denver, where Brady and Belichick seldom win. Counting Sunday, they are now 2-7 lifetime in Denver, including AFCCG losses there in two of the last three seasons.
Leading up to the game, I understood why the Patriots were favored over the Broncos. Brady had his full arsenal of receivers healthy and Peyton Manning looked more like a fossil than a quarterback this year. Yet, I was stunned at how many analysts picked a blowout (Greg A. Bedard of Sports Illustrated called the Pats unstoppable and picked a 42-13 rout).
Very few people accounted for how huge home field is for the Broncos, as well as New England's woes there over the years. They also didn't account for the Broncos having home wins against the Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Packers and Vikings this season. That's five quality wins. In contrast, the Patriots had a cupcake schedule and played only two road games against teams that had a winning record: the Broncos and Texans, going 1-1. The Broncos were clearly the more battle-tested team, and difficult to beat at home.
I am confident that, had the game been in New England, the Patriots would have won. A 15-3 home playoff mark doesn’t lie. At Denver, the crowd noise can be deafening for an opposing team’s offense and Tom Brady looked uncomfortable all day Sunday. Patriots offensive lineman Sebastian Vollmer said the crowd was a factor and that the team had to resort to using a silent count. “It’s part of it,” Vollmer said. “The crowd was loud today. Good for them. ... It’s not easy, but it’s also not the first time. I don’t think that will be a good excuse.” Playing in Foxboro it’s a different story, and Manning is the one who would have looked rattled.
The game was close and came down to a missed two-point conversion, but playing on the road at a mile high against a hostile crowd made the job that much tougher. Had New England taken care of business against either the Eagles or Dolphins, two below-.500 teams, the Patriots would be making Super Bowl travel plans, not cleaning out their lockers. Instead they lost to two teams that fired their coaches at season's end. Chip Kelly and Dan Campbell will be honorary Broncos for their contributions in two games the Patriots "never" lose but somehow did this year.
Jim Buzinski is co-founder of Outsports.com
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