The NFL saved the best for last for this wild and unpredictable 2015 season. The NFC North title is on the line in game No. 256 when the Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings in the season finale of Sunday Night Football. Both teams are 10-5 -- though going in opposite directions -- with the division title and a guaranteed home playoff game up for grabs at Lambeau Field.
Vikings vs. Packers 2016, ‘Sunday Night Football’ preview: NFC North title on the line in Green Bay
The Packers are looking for their fifth straight division title, while the Vikings are trying to win their first NFC North crown since 2009.
The Packers raced out to a 6-0 start but have won just four of nine games since. They are coming off an embarrassing 30-point loss to the Arizona Cardinals, and right now don't look like they can compete with the league's upper echelon. This team has been playing subpar football for more than two months, and there is little reason to think that the Packers can make a deep postseason run -- or even win a single playoff game.
The Vikings, meanwhile, were 2-2 after the first month, but have finished strong with eight wins in their last 11 games. They just clinched their first playoff berth since 2012 and are looking like a team that won’t be satisfied with simply a token postseason appearance. Minnesota has the talent and swagger heading into this pivotal showdown to not only capture its first division title in six years, but also make some serious noise in January.
While Minnesota has the advantage in momentum, history is not on its side as it tries to end Green Bay’s four-year reign atop the NFC North. The Vikings are just 1-10-1 against their rivals over the past six seasons and haven’t won on the frozen tundra of Lambeau Field since Nov. 1, 2009. Of those 10 losses, seven have come by more than one touchdown.
The seeding scenarios for both teams are fairly straightforward. The winner will be the division champ, receive the No. 3 seed and host the sixth seed next weekend. The loser will be relegated to a wild card spot and go on the road for its first playoff game. If the Packers lose, they'll secure the fifth seed regardless of what the Seattle Seahawks do. If the Vikings lose, they'll be the fifth seed if Seattle also loses, but will drop to No. 6 if Seattle beats the Cardinals.
Digits
This second Vikings-Packers matchup has an eerily familiar feel to it, similar to the first meeting between the rivals in Week 11. A spirited Minnesota club was brimming with confidence and riding a five-game win streak, while Green Bay was reeling and in the midst of a three-game skid. Then the Packers reminded everyone of their divisional dominance and delivered a convincing 30-13 blowout win.
Once again, the Vikings seemingly have the Packers right where they want them. This time, however, they appear poised to reverse the outcome. First, Teddy Bridgewater has been outstanding in December and is showing that he's more than just a game manager. Over his last three games, he has completed 70 percent of his passes for an average of 9.1 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 123.2 passer rating is the second-best of any quarterback in that span.
Second, now that they have their entire complement of defenders back from injury, they look like the unit that had allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL through Week 10. Safety Harrison Smith, linebacker Anthony Barr and nose tackle Linval Joseph were each active last week and the result was an impressive reminder of what they can do at full strength. They held the Giants to just a field goal through 44 minutes, sacked Eli Manning four times and forced three turnovers in the victory.
The return to health of Minnesota's defense is foreboding for a Packers offense that has been uncharacteristically mediocre all season. For years, Aaron Rodgers and the offense has carried the team. Not in 2015. They are on pace to rank outside the top 10 in both scoring and total offense for the first time since 2005, and their 24th-place standing in yardage would be their worst since 1991. The Packers finished 4-12 in both of those seasons.
The problems on offense start with a banged-up offensive line that has struggled mightily in pass protection, ranking 24th in sack rate this season. Complicating things in the passing game is the receivers’ inability to get open and win the one-on-one battles downfield. Hence, it is no coincidence that the Packers are at their best when they feature a balanced game plan. They are 7-1 when they rush on at least 45 percent of their plays (and 3-4 when they don’t).
This is likely going to end up as one of Rodgers' worst campaigns since becoming the full-time starter in 2008. He's on track for his lowest completion percentage, fewest yards per attempt and lowest passer rating in a season. He has been held under 150 yards passing in a game that he started and finished three times in his career -- and two of those contests have come this year (Week 8 vs. Broncos and last week vs. Cardinals).
Who to Watch
As good as Bridgewater has been in the last few weeks, this is still Adrian Peterson’s offense and the effectiveness of the run game will likely be the key determinant of the Vikings’ fate in the postseason.
Peterson is putting up a vintage performance this season with a league-leading 1,418 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns. Already with an NFL-best seven 100-yard rushing games this season, Peterson should be primed for another standout effort against a Packers run defense that ranks 21st in yards per game and 27th in yards per carry allowed.
He is also poised to claim his third career rushing title, which would be put him in some very elite company. Only seven other players have led the NFL in rushing three or more times -- Jim Brown, Steve Van Buren, O.J. Simpson, Eric Dickerson, Emmitt Smith, Barry Sanders, Earl Campbell -- and all of those guys are Hall of Famers.
How to Watch
When: 8:30 p.m. ET Sunday
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: NBC
Announcers: Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Online: NBC Sports
Odds
The Packers are 3-point favorites and the over/under is 45.5, according to OddsShark.com.
Preliminary Judgment
The experts are mostly going with the Packers. Over at CBS Sports, six of the eight guys are picking Green Bay. Here at SB Nation, our panel has the Packers with a 7-1 advantage.
Further Reading
For more on the Vikings, check out the Daily Norseman. To read about the Packers, head over to Acme Packing Company.
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