The Houston Texans haven't yet officially received their invitation to the NFL postseason party, but they've essentially got their dancing shoes on and are one small step away from celebrating their first playoff berth since 2012.
Jaguars vs. Texans 2016 live stream: Start time, TV schedule and how to watch online
The Texans are on the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2012.
There are two simple scenarios that will clinch the AFC South title for Houston: a win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Sunday's season finale, or a loss by the Indianapolis Colts to the Tennessee Titans. Even if the Texans lose and the Colts win, the odds are still in favor Houston making the postseason. But it's complicated.
Here’s the setup: the teams would be tied in overall record (8-8), and also tied in the first four set of tiebreakers -- head-to-head, division record, conference record and common opponents record. The Texans currently own the advantage in the fifth tiebreaker (strength of victory, or the combined record of the teams you beat), so the Colts would have to forge a tie there, and then win the sixth tiebreaker (strength of schedule).
To complete that ridiculous scenario, Indy needs nine (!) games to break right, including the obvious results of the Texans losing and the Colts winning their Week 17 contests. Here’s the rundown of the seven others:
Got it? Good. Suffice to say, the likelihood of all those outcomes happening on Sunday is the longest of longshots. That’s why the computer projections at Football Outsiders have the Texans currently with a 99.9 percent chance to win the division and make the playoffs as the conference’s No. 4 seed.
The fact that the Texans are on the brink of reaching the postseason heading into the final week of the season is a near-miracle in itself. Houston opened the season with five losses in its first seven games, and hardly looked like a playoff contender. Instead, the Texans have engineered an incredible turnaround since that awful start, going 6-2 and taking control of the division race.
The fact they've started four different signal callers -- Brian Hoyer (who will start Sunday for the first time since Dec. 13), Ryan Mallett, T.J. Yates, Brandon Weeden -- makes their unlikely resurgence in the standings even more impressive. Assuming the aforementioned nine-team parlay doesn't occur, the Texans would be the first team in the Super Bowl era to make the playoffs with four different quarterbacks who won at least one start during the regular season.
The key during this second-half run has been a thoroughly dominant performance by their defense. Since Week 8, the Texans rank first in yards per game and second in points per game allowed. They’ve surrendered the fewest first downs per game, the second-lowest third-down conversion rate and boast the highest sack percentage in that span. Five of their eight opponents during this stretch have scored zero or one touchdowns.
The Jaguars’ slim playoff hopes were extinguished last week, marking the eighth year in a row they’ve missed the postseason. Still, despite their 5-10 record, this appears to be a team on the rise. Most notably, they’ve made huge improvements on the offensive side of the ball. After finishing last in 2013 and 2014 in points per game, Jacksonville enters this weekend with the league’s 10th-ranked scoring offense.
There is more than pride to play for in this divisional matchup for the Jags. If they can knock off the Texans on Sunday, it would be just their third win in the last five seasons over their rival, and it would also give them their best record since going 8-8 in 2010.
How to Watch:
When: 1 p.m. ET
Where: NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Commentators: Spero Dedes, Solomon Wilcots
Online: NFL Game Pass
See More:
