Tom Brady is still favored to win the 2016 NFL MVP, but a few young superstars are challenging him

With 12 weeks of the NFL season come and gone, the league’s most valuable player race has come into focus. Either Tom Brady will raise his third MVP trophy, or he’ll pass the torch to a first-time winner.

According to OddsShark, only seven players have MVP odds of +1600 or less. In terms of an NFL resume, there’s Brady, then there’s everyone else. But the list behind the almost-40 passer is both impressive and diverse. If the Patriot quarterback doesn’t win, the league’s next anointed superstar will either be an eye-opening young player or a veteran quarterback making the leap no earlier than five seasons into his career.

Winning an MVP award isn’t the defining line between star and superstar. Great players like Drew Brees and Jerry Rice never won the award. Other less-notable veterans like Ken Anderson and Mark Moseley have. However, the AP’s top honor is the validation of an all-time great season and the indicator of a probable Hall of Fame career.

That’s something that can be the foundation from which the league’s next superstar is built — or it can be more fuel for the fire behind Brady’s argument as the NFL’s best ever.

Here’s how the race looks through nearly three months of the season

The timeless wonder
It wouldn’t be an MVP race without TB12 in the mix.

Tom Brady (+275 odds to win the NFL MVP)

Tom Brady is 39 years old. He missed the first four games of the season due to suspension. He’s still the favorite to win league MVP honors.

Nothing about that should make sense, but as a whole it’s another solid argument in the veteran’s case as one of the greatest to ever take the field. Brady and Matt Ryan are the only 30-plus-year-olds in the thick of the MVP race, but Ryan, at 31, is still a baby compared to the Patriot quarterback.

Brady currently leads the league in passer rating (116.7) and TD:INT ratio (18:1). He’s second in average yards per pass attempt, behind only Ryan. More importantly, his Patriots are 9-2 despite a hobbled Rob Gronkowski and a typically spartan receiving corps.

A win would be Brady’s third honor. He’d supplant Peyton Manning as the oldest player to ever win the award. While lifting the trophy would add another stop on the long journey he’s called a career, it would also tamp down the ascendance of several superstars in waiting. Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan are going to be great quarterbacks no matter what — but they may not earn the AP’s recognition until Brady steps away from the game.

Young players making their mark
Two rookies and a third-year quarterback have announced their arrival as game-changing players.

Ezekiel Elliott (+450) and Dak Prescott (+1400)

Elliott has flirted with the top odds throughout a dynamite rookie season, but his success is dovetailed with the first-year quarterback who hands him the ball. The pair has pushed Dallas out to an NFL-best 10-1 record and established the Cowboys as one of the league’s most dynamic offenses.

Elliott has already toppled his franchise’s rookie rushing record and has a realistic chance to break Eric Dickerson’s NFL mark. Prescott rates among the league leaders in completion percentage, passer rating, yards per attempt, and TD:INT ratio. While there’s a chance they could cannibalize each other’s MVP votes as victims of the other’s success, there’s no denying their spots in the conversation as legitimate candidates.

If either rallies to the award, they would be the first rookie to win the AP MVP since Jim Brown in 1957. Earl Campbell also won MVP honors in his first season back in 1978, but from the Pro Football Writers Association. That’s great company to keep — and it bodes well for the Cowboys’ future.

Derek Carr (+900)

The engine behind Oakland’s revival has been Carr, the efficient passer the Raiders have lacked since Rich Gannon was barking out cadences behind center. He’s on pace for a 4,500-yard, 32-touchdown campaign in a season that’s featured career highs in completion percentage, QB rating, and yards per pass attempt along with a career low in interception rate. More importantly, his team is tied with the Patriots for the top record in the AFC.

Carr has frequently been an overlooked prospect. He was the fourth quarterback in a three-QB draft and was selected behind Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel, and Teddy Bridgewater in 2014. He can solidify his claim as an elite quarterback — and make sure he’s never overlooked again — with a big finish and an MVP award in his third season as a pro.

Older quarterbacks making the leap
Established veterans having the best seasons of their careers

Matt Ryan (+600)

Ryan has a human cheat code most Sundays thanks to the presence of wideout Julio Jones, but there’s no denying his role in Atlanta’s 7-4 start. Ryan has thrown for more passing yards and touchdowns than anyone but Drew Brees. He has a higher passer rating than anyone but Tom Brady. No one throws for more yards per pass.

That’s exclusive company to keep -- and just the resume AP voters tend to appreciate. Ryan has made a massive step forward in his ninth season as a professional and is on pace to set career highs in every meaningful passing category while maintaining a career-low interception rate. He’s a souped-up version of Carr, and as long as his Falcons keep winning he should be able to keep the third-year veteran at bay in the MVP race.

Matthew Stafford (+1600)

Stafford has made the leap from fantasy football panacea to winning quarterback, curiously without ball-magnet Calvin Johnson streaking down his sidelines. Instead, he’s turned Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate into one of the league’s most dynamic receiving duos.

Stafford has always had stats on his side. He’s thrown for at least 4,200 yards in each of his last five seasons. This fall, he’s been able to continue that downfield success while cutting his interception rate from 2.2 percent to 1.3 percent.

Most importantly, he’s been a strong leader when his offense has needed him most. Detroit is 7-4 on the season. In six of those seven wins, the Lions trailed in the fourth quarter (the missing link is a Week 1 victory over the Colts, who merely tied Detroit in the final frame). Stafford’s been a rock behind center, leading his team to comeback victories and the top spot in the NFC North.

Russell Wilson (+350)

Wilson doesn’t actually fit into this category; he had his finest season as a professional last fall and failed to earn a single MVP vote. He’s been slightly worse in 2016, but still has the second-best odds to win the award after 12 weeks.

Wilson was limited by a leg injury early in the season and hasn’t been the same dynamic, two-way threat he was through his first four years as a professional. His numbers aren’t gaudy. He throws for only 260 yards per game and has just 11 touchdown passes — fewer than players like Brock Osweiler, Blake Bortles, and Trevor Siemian.

But Wilson is the most recognizable player on one of the league’s best teams. With defensive players all but disqualified from MVP consideration, he’s the most likely Seahawk to step into the AP’s spotlight. And when Wilson is fully mobile, he’s able to make plays like this:

That’s a nightmare for opposing defensive coordinators. With strong odds to win the award, Wilson may be a strong finish away from being validated as one of the league’s elite.