The Rams forgot the lesson of the RG3 trade

Hollywood apparently thought NFL Draft trades were worthy of a movie, and now Hollywood’s new NFL team has started off its existence with a huge trade. Great! Woo! Movies! Before their first game in Los Angeles, the Rams have traded for the top pick in this year’s draft.

One problem though: To get that pick, the Rams had to give up their first-round pick in this year’s draft, their first-round pick in next-year’s draft, two second-round picks in this year’s draft, a third-round pick in this year’s draft and a third-round pick in next year’s draft. They got back a fourth- and a fifth, but they’re giving up six top-100 picks for one top-100 pick.

Reportedly, they’re gunning for a quarterback, probably North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz:

But maybe Jared Goff:

Of all the teams in the NFL, the Rams should know this can backfire. They were involved in a similar trade in 2012, but from the other side, and they earned a haul of useful players while their trade partner got a catastrophe.

The then-St. Louis Rams gave up their No. 2 pick, which Washington used to select Robert Griffin III. In return, St. Louis got three first-round picks and a second-round pick. St. Louis traded some of those picks for more picks, and eventually ended up with eight picks.

Those Rams did a heck of a lot with those eight picks. They got three starters -- left tackle Greg Robinson, middle linebacker Alec Ogletree and defensive tackle Michael Brockers. Brockers just had the best season of his career, Ogletree has been fine, and while Robinson has struggled, he’s only in his third NFL season. Janoris Jenkins had several productive seasons with the Rams before signing a big contract with the Giants this offseason.

Meanwhile, RG3? Well, you might’ve heard how that turned out for Washington. After a brilliant rookie season, injuries set in, and he was unceremoniously cut this offseason after several seasons of stress.

From Washington’s perspective in 2012, what the team was doing made sense. Griffin looked like a truly incredible quarterback coming out of college. He had a strong, accurate arm, decision-making ability, speed and intelligence. He even had a mile-wide smile and lovable personality. He was, from an NFL Draft perspective, a can’t-miss prospect.

But looking in the rear-view mirror... he missed.

This is an overall lesson about the NFL Draft. Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. It’s relatively easy for things to go wrong with a single player. Despite all his talent, injuries and politics turned the dream start to his Washington career into a nightmare. The future of any given player is so uncertain that you’re better off diversifying your investments, since it’s a lot harder for things to go wrong for a whole squad of players. The best way to get useful players out of the draft is not to have the highest pick: It’s to have the most picks, and the most opportunities to select players who will not bust.

But at least when Washington traded for the No. 2 pick, it was getting a quarterback prospect everybody thought would succeed.

Nobody in this year’s class fits that description. The Rams purportedly want a quarterback, but pretty much everybody agrees that a quarterback is not the best player in this year’s draft, or even in the top three. And even if you are picking a quarterback, nobody really stands out among the rest: Draft experts seem pretty evenly split on whether the best quarterback this year is Wentz or Jared Goff.

There was debate about Griffin or Andrew Luck in 2012, and there was debate about Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota last year, but this is of a different nature. Those were highly touted prospects battling to be considered the best. This is a crop of good prospects, and nobody is sure which one has the best potential to be great.