Super Bowl 2017 odds: What is the point spread for Falcons vs. Patriots?

At face value, this year’s Super Bowl matchup between the Patriots and Falcons seems to be pretty even. Both teams boast high-powered offenses, defenses capable of preventing big plays and forcing big turnovers, as well as head coaches and coordinators who have been incredible up to this point.

As of Super Bowl Sunday, OddsShark has the Patriots listed as three-point favorites, with the over/under set at 58 on Sunday morning, but moved to 56½ after heavy betting.

The over/under for this year’s Super Bowl is incredibly high, but warranted. Matt Ryan and company have put together a record-breaking year, smashing the over on an almost-weekly basis.

When you have weapons like Ryan, Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, and Tevin Coleman, it’s hard not to put up a ton of points. The Falcons have scored 30-plus points in six straight games entering the Super Bowl (and are the only history to do so).

Despite this, the Patriots are three-point favorites, and rightfully so. Bill Belichick and Tom Brady are already the best head-coach/quarterback duo in NFL history, and a fifth Lombardi Trophy for the pair would all but solidify the legacies of both Belichick as the best head coach of all-time and Brady as the best quarterback of all-time.

One component bettors seem to be forgetting is the two respective defenses on both sides of the field. Atlanta’s defense, one of the youngest in the NFL, has been incredible as of late, shutting down Aaron Rodgers’ Packers in the first half of the NFC Championship and surrendering just 20.5 points per game in the playoffs. New England’s defense, meanwhile, was the NFL’s best-scoring D by a wide, wide margin. The Patriots backed that up, allowing just 16.5 points per game in their two postseason victories heading up to the Super Bowl.

So when it comes to the spread, I’m taking the Patriots. This is a defense that surrendered fewer points per game than last year’s Broncos team and the 2014 Seahawks. And even without Rob Gronkowski, the Patriots’ offense is one of the league’s best — New England has yet to lose a game with Dion Lewis in the lineup.

Because of the underrated defenses on both sides of the field, I’m also taking the under. A 56½-point over/under is incredibly high, as it’s been four years since two teams combined for at least that many points in a Super Bowl.