Why the NFL’s home dogs are the best bets for Week 7

It’s not often I look at the slate of NFL games on Monday and pick out four games I love. But this weekend is setting up to be an epic weekend to bet home dogs — 4-1 last weekend — and fade the public. I couldn’t be more pumped about it!

The home team has won five of the six Thursday Night Football contests so far, going 4-0-1 against the spread. The lone away team to win was last Thursday night when the Eagles overmatched the Giants.

Well, the Broncos aren’t far and away better than the Cardinals, so give me the home team to cover again. I like the Cardinals to win outright in this game as well. Arizona isn’t terribly great, but they’ve been improving each week, especially on offense with Josh Rosen.

They head into this game against a Broncos rushing defense that’s last in the NFL in yards per attempt. You know what doesn’t help your defense improve that stat? A short week. So I look for Arizona to move the ball and cover this game

A short home favorite? Yes, please.

The Ravens had a bump in the road at Cleveland two weeks ago but righted the ship in Tennessee. They come back home after three weeks on the road with a defense that’s playing lights out, ranked second by Football Outsiders DVOA.

Offensively, the Ravens aren’t too shabby, coming in at 13th. They struggle rushing the football but excel in the pass game, which is opposite of how the Ravens have always been built. The Saints have the 30th pass defense. Lastly, Drew Brees isn’t the same player on the road, completing fewer passes for less yards. I love the Ravens in this spot.

The Cowboys are the ultimate 8-8 team. They are 3-0 at home, and 0-3 on the road. They’ve scored 8, 13 and 16 on the road in ugly offensive performances. Well, this week they head back on the road to face a team coming off a hard fought win at home against the Panthers.

The Cowboys have missed center Travis Frederick more than any player in the NFL outside of Jimmy Garoppolo, and it shows most often on the road when you need a calm and collected center who can direct things under pressure and lots of noise.

Washington will win by at least a field goal.

If you have a principle, like taking home dogs (and not every single home dog, BTW) sometimes you have to bet the game blindly. I did this last weekend with the Cowboys. Cowboys were getting 3.5 points at home against, what on paper, was a superior team in Jacksonville. Well, we know the result.

That same principle applies here. The Bears got embarrassed by the Dolphins last weekend, and I look for a bounce back effort this week. New England is heavily flawed on defense, and lastly, we’ve seen the week after playing the Chiefs, the Broncos and Jaguars defenses struggled mightily.