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Come Fan with UsSaturday, June 20, 2026

5 things we learned about NFL playoff teams in Week 16

Retired NFL lineman Geoff Schwartz says don’t trust the Cowboys, don’t overlook the Seahawks, and good luck to any team who has to play the Saints.

Kansas City Chiefs v Seattle Seahawks
Kansas City Chiefs v Seattle Seahawks
Photo by Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Where to begin? Four teams clinched playoff berths this weekend. Another clinched home-field advantage. The Super Bowl champions have life. The last AFC wild card spot is up for grabs, as is the AFC North battle. We should be in for a thrilling final week of the season.

I have it all covered here!

The team you shouldn’t count out yet: the Patriots

The New England Patriots won the AFC East for a 10th straight season, adding to their NFL record. Yes, 10 straight seasons. Only the Atlanta Braves with their 14 division titles in a row can match this level of success in the four major sports. The Patriots also completed their 16th straight 10-win season. Just amazing.

However, this isn’t your usual Patriots team. They are my default favorite to win the conference, but it’s going to be a tough road. They don’t do anything particularly well.

On offense, they can’t stretch the field and Rob Gronkowski looks older by the week. On defense, they are just a tad below average at No. 21 in the league, according to Football Outsiders. They do of course have Tom Brady, who’s carried them for years and won’t be fazed by that task again this postseason despite his drop in production this year.

The team you shouldn’t believe: the Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have won the NFC East. I’ve detailed this before, but I’ll say it again. While Cowboys fans should be excited they won the division, this isn’t good for the long term. Jason Garrett will remain as the head coach. He’s about as average as they come, and the Cowboys will be in the same situation as this season: fighting for the playoffs but not good enough to win it all.

They are going to lose to Seattle in the Wild Card Round. Mark this down.

Garrett sticking around is going to hamper the evaluation of Dak Prescott for the future. I want to see him in a different offense. The “throw the ball to Amari Cooper and hope he makes a play” offense isn’t good enough. They only totaled 232 yards on offense against the lowly Bucs this week.

The team that keeps getting overlooked: the Seahawks

The Seattle Seahawks clinched a wild card berth with their win over the Chiefs. Russell Wilson continues to be vastly undervalued around NFL circles. He’s a complete stud and is — and has been for quite a few years now — the best deep ball thrower in the NFL. Did you see those passes on the final drive Sunday night?

This was supposed to be a rebuilding season for the Seahawks, so credit Pete Carroll for getting them back to the playoffs. He’s clearly able to coach up young players, especially on defense. Offensively, they decided after Week 2 to run the football with their big interior offensive line, and it’s paid off. I’m looking forward to watching them in the postseason.

The team that will be the toughest to beat: the Saints

The New Orleans Saints won a much tougher game than I anticipated against the Steelers on Sunday. The Saints have now secured home-field advantage through the playoffs, which is hugely important for Drew Brees and company. He’s 5-0 in the dome in the playoffs for his career.

While the offense is scary in the Superdome, scoring over 30 points in their last five home games, their defense is one of the best in the NFL. Clearly they had some issues covering the Steelers’ elite receivers in man coverage, but there’s no team in the NFC that has the talent of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster.

I expect the Saints to win the NFC. They will get to rest banged-up lineman next weekend when the Panthers come to town and be fresh for whoever enters the dome in the Divisional Round.

The team with the brightest future, even if they don’t make the playoffs: the Colts

The last AFC wild card spot comes down to a play in game on Sunday Night Football between the surging Colts and the Titans. The Colts have won eight of their last nine games. They are on the right path. Andrew Luck is balling. He’s finally got a coach who can get the best out of him and a general manager who’s building the right team around him. Their lines, especially on offense, have been outstanding during this winning period.

One narrative that will be floating around on Sunday is the Colts wouldn’t be in this spot if they tied against the Texans. Sure. It’s great to have revisionist history now. That doesn’t change the fact Frank Reich made the right call in the moment there. He sent a message to his team: We are going to win. I have confidence in my young team. I trust the offense to get the yards and I trust if they don’t, my defense will hold.

It’s no surprise the Colts have played outstanding football since then. They are a year ahead of schedule and no matter what happens on Sunday the future is bright for Colts.

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