The 2018 NFL regular season has officially come to a close, which means we can officially wrap up annual win total prop bets. Each year, oddsmakers posts prop bets for NFL teams’ over/under regular season win totals. Professional oddsmakers are usually quite good, so those wagers often come down to the final games of the season.
Which NFL teams most exceeded (or missed) 2018 expectations?
Did you bet on NFL win totals this season? Check your status here.
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Checking results against the Vegas expectation is one way to view the season’s results to date. The most fascinating takeaway from oddsmaker William Hill is that the public is wildly optimistic. William Hill provides a look at how the public bet each win total, and a majority bet the over for 27 different teams. By season’s end, 14 teams hit their over. As much as people complain about folks “hating on their team,” it does pay to be a hater.
Biggest Winners
- The Chicago Bears had an over/under of seven and finished with 12 wins. The final preseason over/under was set on September 3rd, the day after the Bears traded for Khalil Mack. Plenty of other things went right this season, but Mack was the difference-maker.
- The Kansas City Chiefs had an over/under of eight and finished with 12 wins. Patrick Mahomes was the x-factor heading into the season, and he panned out in a big way. The Chiefs were the first team to surpass their preseason number.
- The New Orleans Saints and Los Angeles Rams both had an over/under of 9.5 and exceeded it with 13 wins. They were among the highest preseason numbers, but both were among the quickest to surpass their number.
- The Los Angeles Chargers opened the season with an over/under of nine and walked away with 12 wins and a wild card berth. They split the head-to-head series with the Chiefs, but lost the divisional record tiebreaker thanks to a last-second loss to Denver in Week 11.
Biggest Losers
- The Green Bay Packers had a miserable season that got Mike McCarthy fired. They opened 2018 with an over/under of 10, but finished the season with only five wins.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars had an over/under of nine wins and opened the season as a Super Bowl contender. They finished with only five wins, and yet somehow the entire braintrust is coming back in 2019.
- The San Francisco 49ers opened the season with high expectations surrounding quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, and an over/under of nine. Garoppolo tore his ACL in Week 3, and they stumbled to a four-win season. With his return in 2019, their win total is likely to be up at or over eight wins once again.
- The Oakland Raiders were a curiosity entering the season thanks to the arrival of Jon Gruden. William Hill installed them at eight wins, but nobody could have predicted they would trade both Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper. They finished with four wins in what might have been their final season at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum.
A tie is as good as a win
When it comes to gambling, a tie can be as good as a win. To those who backed the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills, it could have been worse.
Below are the numbers for all 32 NFL teams
Odds are from William Hill’s 100 locations around the United States as of September 3rd. The over odds are what you had to bet to win the over. A negative number means you bet that amount to win $100 (-125 for the Bears means bet $125 to win $100). A positive number means you bet $100 to win that amount (+180 for the 49ers means bet $100 to win $180).
2018 NFL Win Totals
Team | Over/Under | Over odds | Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49ers | 9 | 180 | 4 | Under |
| Bears | 7 | -125 | 12 | Over |
| Bengals | 6.5 | -175 | 6 | Under |
| Bills | 6 | 160 | 6 | Push |
| Broncos | 7.5 | Even | 6 | Under |
| Browns | 5.5 | -150 | 7 | Over |
| Buccaneers | 6.5 | 130 | 5 | Under |
| Cardinals | 5.5 | -190 | 3 | Under |
| Chargers | 9 | -185 | 12 | Over |
| Chiefs | 8 | -160 | 12 | Over |
| Colts | 7 | -130 | 9 | Over |
| Cowboys | 8 | -165 | 10 | Over |
| Dolphins | 6.5 | -140 | 7 | Over |
| Eagles | 10.5 | 105 | 9 | Under |
| Falcons | 9.5 | -115 | 7 | Under |
| Giants | 7 | -160 | 5 | Under |
| Jaguars | 9 | -125 | 5 | Under |
| Jets | 5.5 | -145 | 4 | Under |
| Lions | 8 | 140 | 6 | Under |
| Packers | 10 | -125 | 5 | Under |
| Panthers | 9 | 150 | 7 | Under |
| Patriots | 11 | -140 | 11 | Push |
| Raiders | 8 | 135 | 4 | Under |
| Rams | 9.5 | -190 | 13 | Over |
| Ravens | 8 | -170 | 10 | Over |
| Saints | 9.5 | -145 | 13 | Over |
| Seahawks | 7.5 | 105 | 10 | Over |
| Steelers | 10.5 | Even | 9 | Under |
| Texans | 8.5 | -140 | 11 | Over |
| Titans | 8 | -120 | 9 | Over |
| Vikings | 10 | -135 | 8 | Under |
| Washington | 6.5 | -185 | 7 | Over |
