Which winless new NFL coach will be the last to taste victory in 2018?

The 2018 NFL season only needed one week to set a new record for futility. When the sun set on Monday’s games, all seven of the league’s newly hired head coaches were 0-1.

That’s right; Jon Gruden, Matt Nagy, Matt Patricia, Mike Vrabel, Frank Reich, Pat Shurmur, and Steve Wilks each began their first postgame press conferences of the new season with the anxious sound of air drawn over clenched teeth as the coaching class of ‘18 sank to the bottom of the league’s standing like broken pool toys.

Week 2 was better — but not for everyone. Reich’s Colts scratched out a win over Washington after getting just enough from a still-not-quite-right Andrew Luck. Vrabel’s Titans needed a last-minute field goal to escape a disjointed Texans team whose blocking is more theoretical concept than physical force. Nagy’s Bears ran roughshod over a Seahawks offensive line on pace to shatter the league’s “sacks allowed” record this fall.

That leaves four teams waiting give their new leaders the sweet relief of victory in Week 3. Gruden, Patricia, Shurmur, and Wilks are still waiting to engineer their turnarounds, but some have a much harder path to trod than others. So which of these four first-year coaches is likely to go the longest without earning his first locker room celebration? Here are the candidates, ranging from least likely to be the last winless first-year coach standing to the most.

1. Jon Gruden, Raiders
Next four games: at Miami, vs. Cleveland, at LA Chargers, vs Seattle

Gruden’s schedule softens after this week’s visit to 2-0 Miami, but Cleveland is no longer a gimme win after the Browns notched their first win since 2016 in Week 3. Oakland’s lack of a pass rush — it seems like Gruden could really use a stud DE/LB, maybe someone who was the 2016 Defensive Player of the Year, even — will leave the team unable to exploit Seattle’s biggest weakness.

The Raiders got Derek Carr back on track after a disastrous opening week (0 TDs, 3 INT) in last week’s one-point loss to the Broncos. Carr completed 29 of his 32 passes last week to set 2018’s high-water mark for accuracy, but only found the end zone once. On Sunday, he’ll face the league’s most efficient passing defense. After that, he gets a little easier. While Gruden’s schedule is softer than his peers, he may have some trouble coaxing the good Carr out of his hidey-hole and keeping the bad Carr — the guy who backslid in 2017 and stunk up Week 1 — in the shadows.

2. Pat Shurmur, Giants
Next four games: at Houston, vs. New Orleans, at Carolina, vs. Philadelphia

Shurmur’s got a solid chance to grab his first win with New York in Week 3. After that, things get dicey. A victory over the 0-2 Texans would give his club some breathing room before facing four straight 2017 NFC playoff teams (he travels to play the Falcons in Week 7). Unfortunately for the former Browns coach, his slipshod offensive line looks like an all-you-can-eat buffet for a Houston defense that includes quarterback destroyers like J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus. The Texans are 6-point favorites on Sunday.

That’s a brutal schedule, and the Giants haven’t even looked as good as their one-possession losses would suggest. Without a win Sunday — against another winless team whose losses have been a bit more encouraging — New York is staring down an 0-7 start. But a winless Houston team can give the franchise hope, at least for one week.

3. Matt Patricia, Lions
Next four games: vs. New England, at Dallas, vs. Green Bay, at Miami

Let’s break down this schedule. It begins against Patricia’s old team, only they’re a) pissed off about getting stomped by the Jaguars and b) breaking in new target Josh Gordon. Then the Lions move down to Texas to face a good Cowboys team. Then they host Aaron Rodgers with a defense that’s given up 78 points through two games. Then they get the better-than-expected Dolphins on the road.

Hoooo boy. Good luck with that. Patricia’s passing defense ranks 30th in the NFL, and he’s got dates with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers on the horizon. Games against Dak Prescott and Ryan Tannehill will provide some respite, but they’re on the road. The team’s best shot for a win won’t come until Week 7 when the Seahawks’ rebuilding tour comes to Michigan.

4. Steve Wilks, Cardinals
Next four games: vs. Chicago, vs. Seattle, at San Francisco, at Minnesota

Arizona has looked lost in its 0-2 start, getting absolutely nothing from an undermanned offense and failing to unlock the same Sam Bradford magic Shurmur did in Minnesota. The Cardinals gained just 134 yards of offense in last week’s 34-0 loss to the Rams, and looked like the worst team in the league in the process. But they could get a spark from rookie first-round pick Josh Rosen who, at the very least, should lead his team to more than the five first downs it earned against Los Angeles.

That is, if they actually play him.

Of these four recently hired coaches, Wilks has the second-easiest schedule over the next four weeks. But without any semblance of an offense to rely on, Arizona is likely fodder from which other underachieving teams will build a stockpile of false hope.