It’s time for Week 4 picks against the spread. These are my favorite games of the week, and they are awesome!
Geoff Schwartz’s best bets for Week 4 of the NFL season
Retired NFL lineman and gambling man Geoff Schwartz has three NFL games he is loving on the NFL’s Week 4 schedule.
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Indianapolis Colts (-1) over Houston Texans
Lots of people seem to like Houston in this spot and I don’t at all. They have one of the worst offensive lines in football going on the road to a division opponent, and I just can’t back it.
So far, Deshaun Watson hasn’t looked like himself, and yes, I guess he can get back on track this week. But beyond not “looking like himself,” the offense has looked stale. They haven’t been as creative as usual and maybe it’s to hide Watson and that offensive line. I also love the Colts defense and how fast they play. They are one of the best tackling teams in the league as well, and I think that defense shuts down the Texans offense.
If we flip sides, the issue is clearly the Colts blocking J.J. Watt, who seems to be back after his three-sack performance last week. However, the Colts have blocked Watt decently well compared to his other division opponents, just under one a game. While Andrew Luck is still getting back in shape, he keeps improving each week and he’s back home, where he’s traditionally played better than on the road.
Arizona Cardinals (+3) over Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals you say? Yes, the 0-3 Cardinals. Home dogs this season are 10-4 against the spread, and it feels like this is a great spot to grab a home dog against a huge public backing in Seattle. With Josh Rosen starting, we have to throw out everything we know about the Cardinals offense.
So let’s focus on their defense. The Cardinals are middle of the road in DVOA, clocking in at 14th. However, they are sixth in adjusted sack rate and have 39 pressures this season. They are facing a Seahawks offensive line that isn’t very good — 31st in DVOA and 28th in run blocking. Overall, their offense is 26th in DVOA.
New York Jets under team total 14.5 -120 @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Pretty simple one for me. The New York Jets travel with a rookie quarterback to Jacksonville to face that defense. The Jaguars defense is only allowing 14.7 points per game, and unless the Jets magically figure out a passing game plan that includes downfield passes, they can’t screen their way to scoring points here.
