Geoff Schwartz’s best bets for the Conference Championships

It’s championship weekend! Only two games to gamble and both lines seem set appropriately. There doesn’t seem to be much of an edge. However, there are two player props and a team total that I love!

The last two games Hill played against the Patriots, he completely torched them. The Chiefs targeted him 20 times, resulting in 14 receptions for 275 yards and four touchdowns. One reason for his success is the Patriots run loads of man coverage and there’s not a single defensive back in the NFL who can guard Hill one-on-one. The Patriots also, like most elite defenses who face the Chiefs, focus on shutting down Travis Kelce. In the last two contests between these teams Kelce only had 10 receptions. Tyreek Hill will continue to get single coverage and make the Patriots pay.

Ted Ginn is back in the lineup for the Saints and he has to be a big factor in this game for the Saints to win. With Talib back in the lineup for Rams, their passing defense is much improved. Talib will be matched up against Michael Thomas so Ginn will need to have a big game — which he almost had last weekend. The first play of the game Ginn was open for a touchdown but Brees underthrew him. I think this weekend they connect on one of those deep passes.

The Chiefs have scored 40 points or more in three of the last four matchups against the Pats. I don’t see how that changes here. The Patriots base coverage is man and the Chiefs have multiple offensive weapons who dominate against man coverage. Moreover, the Patriots defense isn’t great on the road. They allow 24 points per game on the road as opposed to 17 at home. On the flip side, the Chiefs score 32.2 points per game at home, including their victory against the Colts. The Chiefs have blown out so many teams at home they often let their foot off the gas at the end of games. I don’t expect that here.