The New England Patriots are currently the favorites to win Super Bowl 53. The point spread opened with the Rams installed as a one-point favorite following the AFC Championship Game, but before the end of the night, the Patriots were a two-point favorite at most sportsbooks. The line has climbed to 2.5 points at most sportsbooks, with a couple going up to three points.
How is the Super Bowl point spread set, and why does it change?
Ready to make a Super Bowl 53 bet? Have questions about the line? Let’s talk about the point spread.
Back up — what’s the point spread?
A point spread, or “the line,” is a number set by oddsmakers to give an advantage to one team and a disadvantage to another team based on the margin of victory or defeat for the two teams. The favorite team is giving up points for purposes of the wager, meaning they not only have to win, but they have to win by X amount of points. The underdog team is getting points for purposes of the wager, meaning they can still lose the game, but they must lose by less than X amount of points.
Using the Patriots-Rams Super Bowl matchup as our example, the Patriots are listed by most sportsbooks as a 2.5-point favorite. The Patriots are listed at -2.5, while the Rams are listed at +2.5. If you bet on the Patriots to cover the spread and they win by three points or more, you win. If you bet on the Rams to cover the spread and they lost by less than three points or win the game, you win.
So does this mean the sportsbook thinks the Patriots will win by 2.5 points?
No. The point spread is not a prediction of the final score, but rather is created to generate an equal amount of betting on both sides. In a perfect world, a sportsbook will get the same amount of money bet on the Rams to cover as they get on the Patriots to cover. If there is an even amount of money bet on both sides, the house is guaranteed to profit because of the juice (more on that below) placed on bets.
The most famous historic example of this is Super Bowl III when the New York Jets stunned the football world and upset the Baltimore Colts. The Jets were 18-point underdogs, still the largest point spread in Super Bowl history. They won 16-7, and people wondered what the oddsmakers had been thinking. Noted oddsmaker Bob Martin was later asked if he was embarrassed making the Colts such huge favorites. He said he was not because in what was then one of the heaviest bet sporting events ever, his number drew a fairly even amount of bets on both sides. This guaranteed a profit for the house.
What is the juice?
If you bet on the point spread, you’ll often see -110 placed next to each betting option. That means that you have to bet $110 to win $100. The $10 difference is effectively a fee you are paying to place the bet. It can be referred to as the juice or the vig (short for vigorish, which originates from the Russian word for winnings). If there is an even amount of money bet on both sides of the line, the juice guarantees a profit for the house.
How does an oddsmaker determine the point spread?
Several factors influence a point spread. It starts with power rankings. The media creates power rankings throughout the year, but those can be entirely subjective based more on feelings and emotions than actual raw data. An oddsmaker creates power rankings based on a host of statistics, some more complex than others. The rankings will include record, strength of schedule, and various offensive, defensive, and special teams metrics. They might use Football Outsiders’ efficiency metrics, they might use expected points added, or they might use a host of other internal and external options. The idea being to develop as objective an assessment as possible as to how good or bad a given team is compared to the rest of the NFL.
Normally, the game location is then factored into the point spread. The home team gets a boost in the point spread, usually of 2.5 or three points depending on their home-field advantage. However, the Super Bowl is played on a neutral field, so that is removed to a certain extent.
The next factor is public perception. Oddsmakers know that certain teams are more popular with the public than others, and so people are more inclined to bet on them, even with a higher than normal point spread. Oddsmakers want even action on both sides of the point spread, so they will adjust the number accordingly.
It’s actually surprising the Rams were installed as an initial favorite given their popularity among bettors. And their Super Bowl success only adds to that. It is no surprise then that the line moved fairly rapidly following the close of the conference championship games.
Why did the line change from Rams favored to Patriots favored?
Once the Rams were installed as a one-point favorite, money quickly came in on the Patriots to cover the spread. For example, at Betonline.ag, over 80 percent of the money bet at the site on the point spread was bet on the Patriots in the hours after the AFC Championship Game. They flipped the line from Rams -1 to Patriots -2.
As previously mentioned, oddsmakers want as close to an even amount of money bet on each side of the point spread. If too much money is coming in on one side of the line, or if particularly sharp bettors are betting one side of the line, an adjustment will be made.
What is a sharp bettor?
A sharp bettor is viewed as a professional in the world of sports betting. Even the best bettors over time are not going to win more than in the mid-50 percent range, with general public losing more than they win. A sharp bettor is viewed as someone who has a proven record of success, and so when they place a bet on a game, a sportsbook will suspect they know something the general public might not. The point spread can change with a large amount of public money bet on a game, but it can also move with a smaller bet by sharps.
In the case of Super Bowl 53, it appears that most everybody was jumping on the Patriots as one-point underdogs, but now that the line has swung the other way, sharps are starting to consider Rams wagers — particularly if they can get the Rams as field goal underdogs.
Will there be more movement?
There might be some movement when injury reports come out, but barring any kind of shocking news development (Tom Brady suspended for the game!), the line likely will not change all that much. The point spread is currently sitting at 2.5 points. I could see sportsbooks dipping into three points to level out the money on each side, but that might not happen until later next week after the teams are wrapping up their practice week. My prediction is the line settles at a field goal heading into kickoff.
