3 key matchups to watch in the Super Bowl

Super Bowl 53 is giving football fans the chance to watch the new kids on the block try and take down the old guard. Sean McVay versus Bill Belichick. Jared Goff versus Tom Brady. New school versus old school is the overarching theme of the showdown, but it’s the captivating matchups between position groups that will dictate the course of the game.

From the big boys up front to the skill players flanking the line of scrimmage, here are three matchups to keep an eye on:

Super Bowl 53 is giving us a classic matchup between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. The unstoppable force is Rams tackle Aaron Donald, the likely Defensive Player of the Year, taking on the Patriots’ immovable offensive line.

The Patriots don’t really have star power on their offensive line, but they’ve been one of the best units across the entire league this season. Football Outsiders has their offensive line ranked third in its Adjusted Line Yards metric. New England’s offensive line dominated in pass protection as well, ranking third and giving up a sack on just 3.5 percent of dropbacks.

The Patriots offensive line has kicked into another gear this postseason. Despite facing Melvin Ingram, Joey Bosa, Chris Jones, Dee Ford, and Justin Houston, New England has yet to allow a sack on ninety dropbacks, and the OL has only allowed Tom Brady to get hit three times over the course of those 90 plays.

Rookie running back Sony Michel has been a big beneficiary of the offensive line. Michel ran for 931 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie in 13 games. He’s scored five touchdowns so far in the playoffs, setting a new rookie record.

Now they’re facing arguably their toughest test of the season in Aaron Donald and the rest of the Rams defensive line. Donald had a monster season, leading the NFL with 20.5 sacks as a defensive tackle. While that number is among the best single season totals in NFL history, it doesn’t fully show how dominant Donald has been this year.

According to Sports Info Solutions, Donald led the league with 87 total pressures, which is defined as any play where the quarterback was hurried, hit, or knocked down. Ford was in second place — with 19 fewer pressures than Donald.

The Rams defensive line starts with Donald, but they still have big-name talents in Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers, and Dante Fowler. None of those three were nearly as productive as Donald, but Suh and Fowler have come to life in the playoffs. Suh had a crucial fourth-down stop against the Cowboys while Fowler caused the hit that allowed John Johnson to intercept Drew Brees in overtime.

Expect to see the Patriots line up with Rob Gronkowski at tight end and James Develin at fullback as they try to steamroll the Rams defensive line. It was a strategy that worked perfectly against the Chargers to the tune of 155 yards and four touchdowns on the ground, including this immaculately blocked stretch play that went for a big gain.

Another intriguing aspect of the Super Bowl is the chess match between the Rams receivers and the Patriots secondary. Rams receivers Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, and Josh Reynolds will be going toe-to-toe against the Patriots’ talented quartet of cornerbacks featuring Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones and rookie J.C. Jackson.

The Rams once again had an electric passing attack led by their heavy use of three-wide receiver sets. Los Angeles led the league with 543 passing attempts out of three receiver sets and gained 8.4 yards per attempt in that scenario, good for eighth in the league.

New England tends to excel against formations with three receivers. The Patriots have given up just 6.9 yards per attempt against three-receiver sets despite facing the ninth-most catchable targets in the NFL.

When the Patriots do get into situations where they’re facing three receivers, they tend to call a lot of Cover 1 looks, which is man coverage with one safety playing deep and another player patrolling the middle of the field. The Patriots have seen 117 catchable targets in this scenario (third), but are just giving up 6.9 yards per attempt when running Cover 1 against three receivers — good for fifth in the league.

While the Patriots excel in Cover 1 against those three-receiver sets, the Rams absolutely shred Cover 1. They’re first in the league averaging 9.4 yards per attempt against Cover 1. When LA brings three receivers onto the field, that number drops to 9.1 yards per attempt, but it’s still tied for first with the New Orleans Saints.

That’s the big matchup in the pass game for the Rams offense and the Patriots defense. Who will win the battle of man coverage?

While the Rams have a dynamic passing attack, they were also one of the top rushing teams in the league this year. The Rams had the top-ranked rushing offense according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric. On the flip side, the Patriots had the 19th-ranked rushing defense according to Football Outsiders.

On the surface, this matchup feels like a clear advantage for the Rams — and that’s because it is. Todd Gurley rushed for 1,251 yards and 17 touchdowns this season and was a legitimate candidate for the MVP at one point. C.J. Anderson joined the team with two games left in the regular season and has been spectacular. In the four games he’s played with the Rams, Anderson has rushed for 100 yards three times — including 123 yards and two touchdowns against the Cowboys in the Divisional Round.

Meanwhile, the Patriots ranked 18th in opposing yards per carry against runs out of 11 personnel (one running back, one tight end), allowing 5.04 yards per carry. The Rams ranked seventh in the league with 5.3 yards per carry in 11 personnel.

They had a league-leading 380 rushing attempts out of 11 personnel — those runs went for 2,003 yards and 21 touchdowns. If 380 attempts from a single personnel grouping seems like a lot, you’re not crazy. Runs from 11 personnel made up 82.8 percent of all the Rams’ rushing attempts this season — it’s safe to say this is their bread and butter on offense.