How the Falcons can still upend the NFC playoff race

The Atlanta Falcons’ 2019 season isn’t exactly going as expected. Their firepower on offense paired with a ton of talent on defense had them as a potential sleeper Super Bowl pick heading into the year. But we’re more than halfway through the NFL season, and the Falcons are just 3-7.

The good news though is they’ve found some rhythm and are now officially playing the role of spoiler in the NFL. In the last two weeks, the Falcons have upset the Saints and the Panthers to disrupt the NFC South race.

That turnaround is a surprise, given that just a few weeks ago head coach Dan Quinn was expected to be fired at the end of the year, if not before. While he still might be headed for the unemployment line, the Falcons are finally looking like the team we thought’d they be all season.

So what’s changed?

The biggest difference is the defense has been getting after the quarterback a lot better than it was earlier in the season.

Before Week 10, the Falcons only had seven sacks all season. Then, they sacked Drew Brees six times, with Grady Jarrett recording 2.5 of them. That continued in Week 11 against the Panthers as the Atlanta got to Kyle Allen five times. Adrian Clayborn had two of those, while Takkarist McKinley registered his first full sack of the season.

Sunday was also a turning point for another problem that had been plaguing the Falcons’ defense: its inability to create turnovers. Coming into the week, the defense had forced an NFL-low four turnovers. Against the Panthers, it picked off Allen four times.

In the last two games, Atlanta’s defense hasn’t allowed a touchdown either — only the fifth time in franchise history it’s done so. The defense was giving up an average of 31 points per game before then and has averaged six points per game in back-to-back wins. The Falcons also outscored the Saints and Panthers by a combined score of 55-12.

Part of the defensive improvement might be the coaching changes Quinn has made. After the team’s bye week on Nov. 3, the Falcons announced Raheem Morris, who was coaching the receivers, would move over to work with the defensive backs. The switch made sense, considering Morris has spent many years of his career coaching secondaries. Then news broke that Quinn, who was calling the defense himself, delegated the defensive playcalling to Jeff Ulbrich and Morris.

In the last two weeks, those moves seem to have paid off; the defense looks like a completely different unit. However, cornerback Isaiah Oliver insists things are just working better for the defense later in the season.

“Defensively, we have the same players on the field, we’re calling the same calls we have been calling, running the same defense — it’s just working better, honestly,” Oliver told reporters after the win over the Panthers. “Guys are communicating more and getting to the ball quicker. But in terms of the schemes, everything is the same.”

Meanwhile, Matt Ryan and the Falcons’ offense have been productive recently, too. Ryan has thrown for 493 yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks, and receivers Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones are each averaging around 85 yards per game in that time span.

The one area that could use some improvement is in the Falcons’ running game. While it has had to deal with injuries to running backs Devonta Freeman and Ito Smith, the Falcons have just four rushing touchdowns all season, and they’re averaging just 3.6 yards per play on the ground.

The Falcons have three home games against the Bucs, Saints, and Panthers before traveling to San Francisco to play the 49ers on Dec. 15. Atlanta then ends its schedule with a home game against Jacksonville and a game on the road against the Bucs. The Panthers, Saints, and especially 49ers losing to the Falcons could shake up the playoff seedings, both in the NFC and wild card standings.

Here’s a look at the current NFC playoff seedings:

In the hunt: Rams (6-4), Eagles (5-5), Panthers (5-5), Bears (4-6), Lions (3-6-1), Cardinals (3-7-1), Falcons (3-7)

The conference as a whole is a lot more top-heavy than in previous years, too:

The Falcons have eight teams in front of them in the wild card race, so them making the postseason doesn’t look too likely, but it’s not impossible. Their best bet would be to win the division, which doesn’t look all that easy either.

Here’s a look at the current NFC South standings:

Still, they can try to ruin things for their rivals, whether that’s keeping the Saints from a first-round bye or keeping the Panthers out of the playoffs altogether.

The one downside to Atlanta winning is it moves the team further down the draft board. The Falcons are still in contention for a top-10 pick, at least right now. But even if they win two more games, they’re likely to miss out on a can’t-miss prospect like Ohio State defensive end Chase Young.

That’s not on the players’ mind, though. The consecutive wins have the Falcons feeling good. Cornerback Desmond Trufant talked after the game about keeping the momentum going:

This season obviously hasn’t been ideal for the Falcons, but beating their remaining NFC South opponents — most importantly, the Saints and Panthers again — would be a decent end to a disappointing year. Even if they don’t make the playoffs, playing spoiler wouldn’t be a bad alternative.