How the 5 biggest NFL playoff races will unfold this season

I’m SO fired up, folks! This was a wild Week 9 in the NFL, and there’s so much to discuss. This time of the season is moving month, when teams go up and down and the playoff picture starts to shape up.

I’ll spend time here going over the five most competitive divisions and playoff races over the second half of the season. I’ll also give you my picks for who I think will come out on top in each.

It was a quadfecta for the NFC North this weekend as all four teams lost. The Lions dropped a back-and-forth contest to the Raiders. The Bears are finished, like I predicted before the season because I didn’t trust Mitchell Trubisky. On Sunday, their offense was a dumpster fire early against the Eagles. They had .45 yards per play in the first half: 20 plays, 9 yards. The offense picked up a bit in the second half, but it was too late.

The Bears and Lions aren’t winning the division, so where does that leave the Packers and Vikings?

Every team will have a stinker during the season and the Packers had theirs Sunday. They went into Los Angeles to play a “road” game against the Chargers, and their offense apparently didn’t realize it was important they show up. The Packers’ interior offensive line was subpar, while the Chargers did a good job scheming up some mismatches in the pass game. Aaron Rodgers had his first career game in which he didn’t throw for over 100 yards by the end of the third quarter. It was a shitshow on offense, but I give them the benefit of the doubt for one game. If the offense struggles next weekend, let’s revisit this, but I have a feeling they won’t.

The Vikings’ loss to the Chiefs was brutal. There’s no way to sugarcoat it. The Chiefs were down their starting QB, LT, RG (two of their best three linemen), and their top DE. They entered the game 30th in the NFL against the run. However, the Vikings failed to run the ball well in Arrowhead Stadium. They also failed to move the ball in the air effectively with Kirk Cousins, who was 19 of 38 for 220 yards. He had a chance to win the game at the end and failed to do so. This is my issue with Cousins, and it’s why I’m out on the Vikings. He comes up short in these situations time and time again:

Cousins is paid to win these games, plain and simple. They were playing a beat-up Chiefs team and had the personnel advantages, but lost anyway. I do not trust the Vikings to win this division, even though they might be the most talented. I’m going with the Packers.

The 49ers feel like the clear leader in this division as the NFL’s last undefeated team. On Thursday night, they beat the Cardinals on a short week, in a division game against an offense you don’t see often in the NFL. The 49ers were still down both their tackles and their fullback, but no worries.

I have total confidence in Kyle Shanahan to keep this offense rolling throughout the season. His creativity and play sequencing rivals Andy Reid and Sean Payton. The 49ers’ defense has been out of this world with the best pass rush in the NFL, and their improved secondary has played in concert with that rush. They are legit and my favorite to win the NFC West.

The Seahawks keep winning, but they play some ugly games. I don’t trust them as a team, especially their coach. Pete Carroll makes some poor decisions with challenges and on fourth downs. But I do trust Russell Wilson. Wilson is a baller who will continue to keep the Seahawks in every single game, even when they run the ball too often and their defense isn’t what it used to be. They have an X-Factor and that’s the reason they are second in my NFC West standings.

The Rams have issues that I’m not sure will get fixed this season. Outside of Aaron Donald, they can’t rush the passer and their offensive line isn’t good. The Rams took advantage of a two of the worst teams in the NFL, the Falcons and Bengals, to win two in a row heading into their Week 9 bye. But what do the Rams do well? If you had to answer, “The Rams win this game with who?” which player or unit do you pick? That’s my concern.

Jared Goff doesn’t seem to be the same quarterback as last season, and their upcoming schedule features games in San Francisco and Dallas, plus the Ravens come to town. And don’t count out heading to Pittsburgh after the Rams’ bye. The Steelers have won three in a row.

Deshaun Watson is amazing to watch each and every week. He continues to make plays when it seems the Texans don’t have much going on. The Texans’ offensive line has improved and their run game is moving along. They are sixth in yards per play and fifth on third down. These are winning stats — and I don’t expect this to stop any time soon.

While their defense will miss J.J. Watt, I think they have enough pieces to make it work, as we saw against Jacksonville. I do worry about the defense on third down and in the pass game, but if their offense is playing this well, they could avoid having to rely on the defense to win games for them.

Y’all know I haven’t been as high on the Colts as the rest of the football world. They entered Sunday 22nd in yards per play on offense and defense. Now, with quarterback Jacoby Brissett’s status uncertain (he suffered a knee sprain against the Steelers), I like their chances even less to win the division.

It’s uncanny how often personnel situations work themselves out. The Jaguars signed Nick Foles to a long-term contract, and he made it through just a quarter of the first game before breaking his collarbone. There was talk about Gardner Minshew keeping the job when Foles was healthy. I think the chances are low that’s happening after Minshew’s performance against the Texans. With Foles set to return next week, that makes the Jaguars interesting as a contender.

How quickly will it take Foles to get back into rhythm? We have no answer for that, but he’d be the second-best quarterback in the division quite easily. A rejuvenated offense will help complement the defense as they continue to terrorize opposing passer. I do think the Jaguars can still make a run at the division.

Right now, I’m going with the Saints, who were off this weekend. They get the Falcons twice, Panthers twice, and the Bucs once more. They do play the 49ers at home and the Colts as well. I like their schedule and with a healthy Drew Brees, I believe in them more than the 49ers in the long term. Their defense was absolutely fantastic once Brees went out, and I don’t see it stopping at all.

If it’s not the Saints, I’m going with the 49ers for all the reasons I said above.

Even with the loss to the Ravens, the Patriots should have the No. 1 seed. I have no concern about that. The question is the No. 2 seed. The Chiefs’ win Sunday was huge as it goes a long way to determining the second seed. I think with Patrick Mahomes coming back and only one team on their schedule with a winning record, the Chiefs can get that No. 2 seed. They also have the tiebreaker against the Ravens, who have a tough schedule down the stretch.

The Chiefs at 12-4 get that spot, with the Ravens in the No. 3 seed and the AFC South winner getting the No. 4 seed.