Why you should, and shouldn’t, believe the Vikings are serious contenders

The Vikings have put a frustrating 2018 behind them. With just three weeks remaining in the 2019 season, Minnesota is 9-4 and controls its own destiny when it comes to a playoff spot. After a slow start, Kirk Cousins is enjoying the most efficient season of his eight-year NFL career. A swarming defense, paced by explosive pass rusher Danielle Hunter, has held opponents to 16 points or fewer six times.

But these impressive numbers may be a crumbling facade as the league rushes to the postseason. Minnesota’s 2019 has been built from a weak schedule and a handful of near-misses in meaningful games. The Vikings are 0-4 against teams with winning records and undefeated against sub-.500 clubs. Their best win came against either the 6-7 Cowboys or Raiders.

That makes their 9-4 record less impressive than it looks, and there’s a chance this team slides its way into the postseason without beating a single contender. That leaves many questions Minnesota still has to answer. The biggest one is whether the Vikings should be taken seriously as they set their sights on the Super Bowl.

*It’s really like 8 ways, but 100 sounds much better

Minnesota ranks seventh in the league in scoring offense and fifth in offensive efficiency after averaging 6.0 yards per play through its first 13 games. It’s easy to understand why.

Cousins threw for only 183.8 yards per game and recorded a 3:2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the Vikings’ 2-2 start. In the nine games since, he’s upped those numbers to 282 yards each week and a 21:2 TD:INT mark. His passer rating climbed from 88.6 to 112.0 — the second-best number in the league behind only, huh, Ryan Tannehill.

Those are numbers worthy of the fully guaranteed three-year, $84 million deal he signed in 2018, but he’s had plenty of help getting there. Dalvin Cook and Stefon Diggs have been the Arn and Ole to his Gene Anderson, reforming the Minnesota Wrecking Crew and giving opposing defenses little opportunity to load up and stop either the run or the pass. Cook has reclaimed the form that made him one of 2017’s most explosive rookies before a torn ACL cut that season short. His 13 rushing touchdowns lead the league, his 1,108 rushing yards rank fourth, and his 8.4 yards per target (503 yards on 60 passes) ranks second among all NFL tailbacks behind only Austin Ekeler.

He’s thrived as a passing option in the wake Diggs has left behind. While a slow start churned up trade rumors — rumors Diggs later denied — Cousins’ 2019 revival has hinged on finding his game-breaking playmaker in space. Here’s what the Pro Bowl wideout has put together since Week 4:

50 catches, 895 yards (89.5 per game), 17.9 yards per catch, and 12.4 yards per target

The only player in the league to average more yards each time his QB throws him the ball is Titans rookie A.J. Brown (12.8). Diggs and Cook make a great 1-2 punch, but that’s not all the Vikings can throw at you.

Adam Thielen has only played in eight games due to a hamstring injury and hasn’t been as effective as he was in his breakthrough 2018. Still, he has more touchdown catches (six) than anyone else on the roster but Kyle Rudolph. Rudolph and rookie tight end Irv Smith have combined to catch more than 80 percent of their targets and have just one drop between them. More importantly, the veteran-rookie combo has turned 42 of their 66 catches into either first downs or touchdowns.

Combine that with an offensive line that’s given Cousins more time in the pocket than anyone else in the league, and you’ve got a championship unit.

The biggest factor working against Cousins is his prior seven years of good, never great play. The veteran’s 9-4 record this fall has pushed his record as a starter up to just 43-41-2 in the regular season. While much of that mediocrity stems from his time in Washington, the stigma of Cousins as the league’s perfect .500 player persists.

Here’s what he’s done in his two seasons with the Vikings in 11 games against playoff teams (in 2018) or teams currently in playoff spots (in 2019):

By passer rating, he’s roughly as good as Philip Rivers has been in 2019 against these teams. If you go by adjusted yards per attempt (which places an emphasis on touchdown passes and interceptions), he’s been equal to Marcus Mariota. That’s not bad, but it’s not especially good either. Factor in his 0-8 record under the spotlight of Monday Night Football and an 0-1 record in his only playoff start (in 2016 against the Packers) and Cousins is left with a lot to prove.

He’ll have a chance to inspire confidence in primetime in Week 16 when Minnesota hosts Green Bay — a team Cousins is 2-2-1 against in his NFL career.

Hunter has been an overlooked star in Minneapolis, but that should end in 2019. No player in league history has ever gotten to 50 sacks faster than the fourth-year defensive end, who has 12.5 sacks so far in 2019. His blend of strength and athleticism makes him a nearly perfect edge rusher who can (and often does) single-handedly ruin drives.

He’s bookended by another Pro Bowler in Everson Griffen, giving Minnesota a terrifying pass-rushing duo. They’re just two pieces of a unit that’s solid, but not spectacular, at every level. Through 14 weeks, the Vikings’ defense ranks:

That group is also loaded with players who were part of Minnesota’s 2017 run to the NFC title game, including Hunter and Griffen. They won’t be overwhelmed by a win-or-go-home scenario.

The Vikings are solid on defense ... until they aren’t. Minnesota’s penchant for brief implosions against strong quarterbacks has been toxic this year.

In Week 2, Aaron Rodgers needed just 16 minutes to throw for 141 yards and lead the Packers to a 21-0 lead. In Week 13, the Seahawks put up 34 points in roughly 32 minutes of game time, scoring on five straight drives that ranged from the second quarter into the fourth. All 24 of the Cowboys points in a Sunday Night Football victory came in a four-drive span. Matthew Stafford, flanked by a running game that was largely ineffective, threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns in a Vikings win back in October.

Minnesota recovered in each of those cases to stem that rising tide, beating Detroit and Dallas in the process. While comeback efforts against Green Bay and Seattle each fell short, the Vikings’ defense tightened up to allow Cousins to bring his offense back from three-possession deficits and create an opportunity to pull out a win in the fourth quarter.

Hunter and Griffen have wrought havoc, but they haven’t gotten much help elsewhere in the front seven. Those two players have constituted exactly half of the team’s QB hits (43 of 86) and 54 percent of its sacks (20.5 of 38). Issues persist behind them as well. Cornerbacks Mike Hughes, Trae Waynes, and Xavier Rhodes have each been below average in 2019, allowing 11 touchdown passes between them and helping opposing quarterbacks to a 109.3 passer rating when they’re in coverage.

That’s a red flag in a postseason that’s set to include Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Jimmy Garoppolo (who’s better than he’s given credit for), and potentially Dak Prescott in the NFC bracket. A crack in the Vikings’ dam quickly becomes a flood. Is a primetime Cousins the guy you want fixing things?

The Vikings have a good chance at heading back to the postseason after a disappointing 2018. Cousins is the captain of that journey, but his ship has been well-staffed by stars like Cook, Diggs, and Hunter. There’s one massive reason not to believe in Minnesota, however. The “4” in its 9-4 record are the only games the team has played against winning teams. It’s the same issue that kept the Vikes out of the playoffs last January.

They’ll have to reverse that trend to hold off the Rams for the final wild card spot or vault over Green Bay for the NFC North title. The final three weeks of the season, with games against the Packers and Bears (after a matchup with the 5-8 Chargers) will provide an opportunity. If the Vikings limp to 10-6, it’ll be tough to take them seriously as a Super Bowl threat, especially if they’re stuck at home watching the Rams in their spot.

A win over Green Bay in Week 16, however, would give Minnesota something to build from — and could be the catalyst that jump starts a run to the franchise’s first NFL title.