The 4 remaining games that will decide the top of the 2020 NFL Draft order

Barring an unlikely turnaround, the first pick in the 2020 NFL Draft will belong to the Cincinnati Bengals. But that’s not certain yet, and who comes next is still very much up in the air.

Four teams remain in the running for the second selection next spring. The Dolphins, Lions, Giants, and Washington could all find their way behind — or even in front of — the QB-needy Bengals and into position to draft any member of 2020’s talented cast of prospects. And, as luck would have it (though not for anyone stuck with these games as their local broadcasts), four of these five hopeless teams will play each other over the final two weeks of the season.

That leaves at least one compelling reason to watch Bengals-Dolphins or Giants-Washington in Week 16, besides self-loathing. Those aren’t the only likely-awful games that could have massive repercussions on rebuilding plans and the 2022 playoff race.

Here are the showdowns connoisseurs of bad football and mock drafts have had circled on their calendars since October.

Detroit would need some extreme help to run its way into the top two of next year’s draft. The Lions’ 3-3-1 start — even with the seven-game losing streak that followed — means they’re at the bottom of the pecking order when it comes to the teams that could climb into that Chase Young position at No. 2.

The good news is:

a) Head coach Matt Patricia’s job is safe, so he doesn’t have to worry about a late-season rally to build an argument behind why he shouldn’t be fired, and

b) David Blough is still the team’s quarterback.

Both Matthew Stafford and backup Jeff Driskel are on injured reserve, which means the undrafted free agent will man the helm for the final two games of Detroit’s season. He’s done roughly as well as you’d expect from a third-team All-Big Ten selection thrust into the spotlight. Which is to say, not well at all.

Each of his last two starts has been worse than the one that preceded it. Two similar performances could lock the Lions into a top-five pick to draft the defensive or offensive line help Patricia needs to keep his job beyond 2020.

The importance of this game hinges on what happens with Cincinnati the week before — keep reading — but Cleveland’s ongoing collapse could open up the top spot in the draft should the Bengals suddenly be stricken by competence.

That would be a wild swing for the team that’s lost all but one game this season (and by an average deficit of 11 points). Still, it’s worth looking out for considering the volatility of the final two matchups on Cincinnati’s schedule. Let’s start with the Browns, who began the year as AFC North favorites and will finish it as the only team of the 2010s to fail to have a single winning season.

Cleveland’s dysfunction turned into an implosion in Week 15 against a team that had been riding a six-game losing streak. A two-possession loss to the Cardinals led Browns players to question head coach Freddie Kitchens’ decision-making on the sidelines, take plays off, and ask Arizona players — who, again, play for an objectively bad football team this season — to rescue them from the Browns roster.

That certainly sounds like the kind of team that wouldn’t give a single shit about Week 17, even if it weren’t playing the NFL’s worst club. Factor in what’ll likely be Andy Dalton’s last game in Cincinnati (and possibly A.J. Green’s as well) and you’ve got enough reasons to believe the Bengals could torch their shot at the No. 1 overall pick if given the chance on 2019’s final Sunday.

The Dolphins came into 2019 designed to tank. They cashed in a handful of their top young assets (Minkah Fitzpatrick, Laremy Tunsil, Kenny Stills) in exchange for first-round draft picks. They allowed players like Ryan Tannehill, Ja’Wuan James, and Cameron Wake to leave either via trade or free agency. Their biggest offseason signing was Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s also, somehow, the team’s leading rusher.

And yet, the Bengals still passed them in their race to the bottom. Never count out the true hopelessness of NFL football in the state of Ohio.

Cincinnati needs to win out to force a tie at the top of the draft — one it would likely lose thanks to a relatively solid strength of schedule. With one win in its first 14 games, that seems tremendously unlikely.

That gives the Bengals the opportunity to add one more win this season without directly endangering its chance at the No. 1 pick. It could also be Dalton’s last time to shine while wearing orange stripes. However, a loss ensures that top selection and negates any shenanigans a quickly unraveling Browns team could pull off in the season finale.

Both teams will want to win this game at a locker-room level. From an organizational level, though, a loss is much, much better.

The Bengals are still almost certainly going to end up with the top pick, which means this Week 16 game between non-powers should have the greatest overall impact on how 2020’s top five shakes out. Daniel Jones bested Dwayne Haskins the first time these two teams met in September. In the 12 weeks since, the two rookie quarterbacks have trended in different directions.

Jones has a pair of four-touchdown games, but he also threatened to break the NFL’s single-season fumble record amidst the Giants’ nine-game losing streak that followed. Only an ankle injury could stem his ignominious penchant for back-breaking turnovers (and give Eli Manning one last chance at MetLife Stadium glory).

Although Haskins was badly outplayed by Jones in his rookie debut, he has shown signs of improvement despite the abject lack of talent surrounding him. The former Ohio State standout has upped his passer rating in each of his past three starts, culminating with a 261-yard, two-touchdown, zero-interception performance in a near-upset of the Eagles.

A loss at FedEx Field, especially with a game against an Eagles team that may be playing for its postseason life in Week 17 looming, could essentially clinch the No. 2 pick for New York. The Giants have been bad enough this fall to own most of the theoretical tiebreakers that would come with a two- or three-way tie in the draft standings. Evening their season series with Washington would be the easiest way to get there.