Ranking the final 4 quarterbacks in the 2020 NFL playoffs

Picking the top quarterback remaining in the 2020 NFL playoffs is easy. Patrick Mahomes is the reigning MVP. Last week, he threw three touchdown passes in less than four minutes of game time (and five touchdowns total) to turn a 24-0 deficit into a 51-31 victory over the Texans.

After that, things get dicey. The playoffs are loaded with passing talent, but Mahomes may be the only sure thing if you’re looking for a 300+ yard performance in the conference championship games.

Aaron Rodgers has led the Packers to 14 wins this year, though he has done so while turning some of his responsibilities over to a proficient Green Bay running game and a better-than-usual defense. Ryan Tannehill, who finished 2019 with the league’s top passer rating, has just 160 passing yards in two playoff wins combined. Jimmy Garoppolo proved he can be a consistent positive passing force for the best team in the NFC, but when his head coach wanted to put away the Vikings, Kyle Shanahan specifically took the ball out of his quarterback’s hands.

The result is a tangled mass of good and occasionally great passers, all of whom are capable of pushing their teams to an NFL title. Let’s break down this race.

Mahomes’ greatness in Kansas City boils down to three things:

a) the ability to avoid pressure in the pocket and extend plays long enough for even the stoutest coverage to break down,

b) an innate connection with his game-breaking wide receivers and tight end, who know exactly where to find holes downfield once Mahomes is forced to go off script, and

c) a cannon arm that can hit tiny targets in the pocket, on the run, or even while he’s in the process of being tackled.

Mahomes knows just exactly how to bring linebackers and defensive backs out of coverage and toward the line of scrimmage. He’s capable of taking a patch of open field in front of him and turning it into a first down — like he did with a game-high 53 rushing yards last week. But if you slide up to cut off those scrambles, he’s usually just waiting to create a big play in the void you’ve left behind. Here’s what he did last postseason:

Though his attempt to defend his MVP award was derailed by a midseason knee injury and Lamar Jackson’s brilliance, Mahomes remained a top tier — and somehow under-the-radar — quarterback in 2019. He ranked among the league’s top five passers in interception rate, yards (and adjusted yards) per pass, and SIS’s passing points earned despite taking a step backward in most counting stats following his breakthrough 2018.

His deep ball accuracy was actually better this fall than it was in that MVP season. He improved that number from a 42.7-percent completion rate to 48.6 percent (counting playoffs) in 2019. That was on full display in the Divisional Round when he torched the Texans with five such throws.

Mahomes’ ability to do just about everything well makes him a nightmare to defend. He can torch you at the line of scrimmage or effortlessly flick it deep. That makes him a slam-dunk choice for the No. 1 spot.

Rodgers hasn’t been his typically superhuman self in 2019. The Packers went 13-3 in the regular season and stand at the doorstep of a Super Bowl anyway.

That’s not to suggest Rodgers was a bad quarterback by any means. Saddled with a receiving corps that featured Davante Adams at the top of the depth chart and a range of unheralded targets behind him (Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, and Jake Kumerow foremost among them), he still managed to throw for 250 yards per game while leading the league in interception rate.

The combination of Aaron Jones and a defense that’s stepped up to make big plays in clutch moments has limited the amount of moments where Rodgers has had to put his team on the back and make a play that seems to defy the laws of physics. At 36 years old and coming off a season when his scrambling abilities were diminished, it may be fair to wonder whether the two-time MVP can find that extra gear to devastate opponents in the postseason.

Even so, the team is in good hands should the Packers’ playoff hopes rest on Rodgers’ ability to find Adams downfield. Green Bay rode the Seahawks’ steadfast refusal to double-cover Adams in the Divisional Round. That win saw the Pro Bowl wideout haul in eight catches for 160 yards, two touchdowns, and one pivotal third-down conversion late in the game.

Rodgers didn’t have to be a superhero against the Seahawks — he just had to be smart enough to carve up Seattle’s porous pass defense. He’ll face a much tougher challenge against the 49ers’ second-ranked unit in the NFC title game. That could necessitate the return of Rodgers prime to figure out Richard Sherman and the San Francisco secondary.

Tannehill has been relatively quiet this postseason. Early leads have meant he’s been able to win by handing the ball off to Derrick Henry roughly twice as often as he’s thrown passes.

That, along with an occasionally solid but often underwhelming Dolphins career, has some Titans fans concerned in advance of their biggest game of the year. There are still bright spots, however.

More than 10 percent of his passes in the playoffs have ended in touchdowns. With top choice A.J. Brown blanketed by double coverage throughout the postseason, he’s turned to players like Anthony Firkser and Kalif Raymond.

While his most memorable touchdown of the season so far was the result of a heroic effort (and butt-planting) from Jonnu Smith, it was Tannehill’s mastery of the moment that made that happen. The veteran quarterback stepped back to create space in the face of a blitz and, realizing it was third down, took a chance downfield.

Tannehill put this pass where only his tight end could get it. That trust was rewarded by an absolutely bonkers play from Smith.

In October, Tannehill took over Tennessee’s starting quarterback role from Marcus Mariota. In the process, he led the league in yards per pass (9.6) while completing more than 70 percent of his throws. His 117.5 passer rating was the best the league’s seen over a full season since 2013 and fourth-best since 1970.

He did this despite getting sacked on roughly one out of every 10 dropbacks. He did this while turning second-rounder Brown into a rookie of the year candidate atop a mostly overlooked receiving corps and without starting tight end Delanie Walker, who played in just seven games due to injury.

That was all extremely impressive. He’s going to have to tap into that version of Tannehill at some point if he’s going to lead the Titans to their first Super Bowl win, though.

Garoppolo finished the season with an efficient 8.4 yards per pass, a 102 passer rating, and four fourth-quarter comebacks (tied for the league lead). The fact he came in last in this ranking is a testament to the other quarterbacks remaining in this year’s playoff field.

The former Patriot has demonstrated he’s gifted passer who can not only spot opportunities, but also slip the ball into rapidly closing windows. There are major questions to unpack about his ability to identify coverage and throw the ball downfield in clutch situations, however.

Garoppolo’s breakthrough has been marred by ugly interceptions. Five of his 14 picks this year have been the result of linebackers dropping back into the defensive backfield to snipe away a pass that never got to its intended target.

The 49ers’ gameplan has been to bring Garoppolo along fairly slowly with a steady diet of short, relatively easy throws. His completed passes went for an average of 12.1 yards per reception, which ranked sixth in the NFL. However, his average throw traveled only 6.3 yards past the line of scrimmage — 40th among qualified passers! If opponents can find a way to keep his targets (namely loosed bull George Kittle) from rumbling for massive gains after the catch, it could mean Garoppolo will have to hit some deep balls.

There’s hope there. Garoppolo only threw 32 passes than traveled 20+ yards — fewer than any quarterback who threw at least 300 times except Drew Brees. He also turned 19 of those passes into big gain completions to compile a sterling 59.4 percent completion rate on deep balls. No other qualified passer in the NFL even cracked the 50 percent barrier.

It wasn’t always pretty — and sometimes it took some significant adjustments from his wideouts — but it worked.

Garoppolo has already torched the Packers once before, throwing for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 37-8 win back in November. He even got to show off his ability to place a ball downfield to a wide open Kittle to make all Green Bay’s defensive nightmares come true at once.

A similar performance in the NFC title game would prove his Niners don’t have to rely on their running game to win the conference. And it would tell the world his slot at No. 4 was way too low.