Ron Rivera is right about Carson Wentz, but he’s not the Commanders’ biggest problem

Carson Wentz played his best game of the year against the Titans, but still caught a stray from Ron Rivera when the Commanders coach was asked why his team is struggling while the rest of the NFC East is thriving.

Rivera was quick to apologize, walking back his comments on Tuesday morning and saying he shouldn’t have singled out any one player for the Commanders’ 1-4 start. It was extremely uncharacteristic from Rivera to call out any player, as he’s typically extremely diplomatic and loves to speak in head coach platitudes — but I mean, the man’s not wrong.

Wentz is not good. He’s not good enough to be starting in the NFL anyway, and certainly not good enough to be the kind of player you actively go out on a limb for and hand him a 7-10 team on the cusp of the playoffs in order to put you over the top, but here we are. Wentz is on pace to have the second-worst season of his, rivaling only his 2020 implosion with the Eagles.

The main problem isn’t just that Wentz is below-average, it’s that he’s wildly inconsistent — and that’s a horrible trait for a team that should be living through its defense to win games. The Commanders don’t actually need a lot from the quarterback position, just a steady hand who can do, well, pretty much what the Cowboys are doing right now with Cooper Rush. Instead, Wentz is on pace for 20 interceptions, and the margins in Washington are too thin for him to compensate for turning the ball over — even if he is on pace for a career-high 34 touchdowns.

That said, it’s really pretty asinine for Rivera to put all the blame on Wentz’s doorstep. Offensively the team has lost its balance. A year ago Washington ran the ball 477 times and passed 550 times. That’s a 46/54 run/pass balance, which didn’t exactly light up the stats — but at least it had an identity. The Commanders were going to try and dominate on the ground, and let their defense win games.

This year they’ve reduced this balance and are throwing the ball on 65 percent of downs. Part of this is terrible run blocking, with the team really missing Brand Scherff at right guard to open up holes — but also that the team is working overtime to get targets for Curtis Samuel. The Commanders have been desperate to find that No. 2 receiver, but forcing the ball to Samuel is actively hurting the passing offense. He’s on pace for 153 targets this year, on a projected 955 yards.

That is a terrible rate, especially when you consider Terry McLaurin, your true No. 1 signed to a big extension, has gotten far less targets and still done more with the ball when given the chance. Before you hand-wave away the deemphasis of McLaurin in the offense and elevation of Samuel as a product of defensive adjustment shutting down the top receiver, keep in mind that the Vikings, for instance, as still feeding Justin Jefferson for 11 targets a game — despite everyone in the NFL knowing he’s going to be the primary option.

So, while Wentz is definitely below-average, the far bigger issue is offensive playcalling that doesn’t seem to grasp how to use the team’s personnel. Of course, this is kind of offensive coordinator Scott Turner’s M.O. It’s what he did for Rivera when the duo were in Carolina, and brought it to Washington.

Turner often loses sight of the players he has, in service of an ideal of throwing the ball as much as possible. In his four years as an OC his teams have averaged being 9th in the NFL in pass attempts, while averaging 28th in passing production. The best this team was, ironically, was when they passed less, and that happened solely because the quarterbacks in 2021 were so bad they couldn’t be asked to shoulder the kind of passing Turner wanted.

This is especially frustrating, because by the numbers the Commanders’ defense is actually playing significantly better than they were in 2021.

So, when Rivera puts the blame on Wentz, maybe he should point the finger a little more at his hand-picked offensive coordinator who is destroying this team with hubris?

There’s also just the reality that the Commanders have had a really, really difficult schedule so far. In the last three weeks Washington has played the Eagles, Cowboys and Titans — and before that it was the Lions, who despite their 1-4 record is playing well above their weight class once again.

Washington has had the second-most difficult schedule in the NFC so far, with only the Rams playing a tougher slate. They rank 10th in the NFL overall in schedule difficulty — so there is a factor here too that the beginning to the season has just been bad luck.

Things are not good in Washington, and yes, a part of that is definitely due to Carson Wentz, but we come back to the same issue that’s plagued Rivera for his entire head coaching career: He’s too nice, and too loyal to members of his coaching staff who don’t pull their weight. Cam Newton’s best years in Carolina were wasted under offensive coordinator Mike Shula, whom Rivera refused to cut bait with even though he was terrible — now history is repeating with Scott Turner.

Maybe this will all turn around, but it won’t be because of Carson Wentz magically getting better. It will improve if the team makes a switch at OC, but don’t count on that happening.