The Colts’ failure at QB is their own fault

Before the season, when Indianapolis Colts head coach Frank Reich was asked about what Matt Ryan brought to the Colts franchise, and one word stood out:

“Steady.”

The idea was that a 37-year old Ryan could come into Indianapolis and provide stability for the Colts and a roster that had talent, but lacked at the QB position.

Fast forward to yesterday, and Matt Ryan is benched for the rest of the season while the Colts run with QB Sam Ehlinger, effectively punting on this season and Ryan. While Ryan didn’t play well for a majority of the season—his adjusted Expected Points Added (EPA) per play is 29th in the NFL and his arm has a noticeable lack of zip—the Colts decision makers should take most of the blame.

This isn’t just a 2022 problem for the Colts, however. This is a problem that stems from 2018 and is finally coming to a head in October. The Colts failure to find a consistent and stable answer at the most important position in sports kept resetting their title window, despite having what was once a young core.

In 2018, Frank Reich was hired to re-establish a Colts franchise with QB Andrew Luck at the helm. To do that, Luck needed the proper talent around him: a competent offensive line, speed at receiver, and a defense that could hold its’ water so they could get the ball back to Luck.

That 2018 draft class for the Colts was a home run. Just look at the names and you’ll find top contributors on both sides of the ball:

The 2019 draft didn’t have the star power of 2018, but again, solid contributors up and down the board.

Then the unthinkable happened: Andrew Luck retired, and that’s where our story ultimately begins and ends. The Colts were built to win with Andrew Luck at QB, and could never dig themselves out of that hole. Reich and GM Chris Ballard tried to fill the void with stopgaps, but as they continued to swing and miss, the supporting cast got worse.

Since Luck retired in August of 2019, the Colts have gone through Jacoby Brissett, Phillip Rivers, Carson Wentz, and Matt Ryan at the QB position in hopes of just finding someone good enough to keep the wheel steady while the supporting cast led the way. However, none of these QBs have started for over a year with the Colts, with Rivers retiring after the year.

A lot of discussions happen in NFL circles about failures of franchises in wasting the prime career of a QB with poor roster construction, but for the Colts it’s been inverted. They’ve wasted the prime careers of a majority of their supporting cast with instability at the QB position.

Let’s use Quenton Nelson as an example. He’s been one of the best guards in the league since he entered in 2018, but his play hasn’t been up to his standard this year. In fact, the entire offensive line play has deteriorated from a strength of the Colts roster to a noticeable weakness. This year, they’re in the top ten in sack rate at 8.7 percent, and 31st in the NFL in Adjusted Line Yards, according to Football Outsiders. Basically the lowest point the Colts OL has been at since 2018; they can’t generate any push in the run game and aren’t protecting any QB they put under center.

Ballard and Reich’s continued whiffs on sustainable QB play has taken a negative affect on the supporting cast around any signal caller they bring in. Outside of recent draft picks like RB Jonathan Taylor and receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Alec Pierce, the Colts are getting older. Their window is shrinking from the size it was around 2018, and it’s largely due to the continued, slow walk back to the drawing board by the franchise each year to find a QB for a year. The problem with that is simple: playing Rent-a-QB rarely works.