The NFL’s quarterback shuffle is only going to get weirder

The movement of quarterbacks this offseason has been unprecedented, as has the use of the phrase “bridge QB.” A perfect storm has been brewing for over a year, leading us to a point where many teams are frustrated, and unless you’re a lucky organization with a top-tier passer or developmental player, you’re trying to do anything to get better.

Over a third of the league is in a position where they either want a QB, or will be looking for one in the very near future. This number could swell even further if/when teams decide their status quo isn’t working. However, quarterback need alone isn’t pushing this current movement, there’s a lot more in all this. We have a lack of available talent at quarterback, an upcoming draft that is weak at the position, and a future draft that could be exceptionally deep with signal callers.

Pair these factors with several elite teams going all-in to win right now, and it’s left a lot of bad and middling teams in a lurch. Do they join in and try make the playoffs now, knowing they’ll likely get run over, or do they sit and wait for the window to open? That’s a difficult question, and every organization is answering it in different ways.

The elephant in the room when it comes to all this is Deshaun Watson. There is a lot to talk about when it comes to the Texans finding a trade partner for their Pro Bowl quarterback, and it’s unsurprisingly disheartening to see how many teams are salivating to land a player who still has pending civil lawsuits from 22 women he allegedly sexually assaulted and/or harassed.

We have to talk about Watson because he is the catalyst for the new round of QB movement around the NFL, which could get even wilder than Russell Wilson being traded to the Broncos, or the Commanders dealing for Carson Wentz. Whoever the Texans find as a trade partner will cause dominoes to fall around the league, and we could see another 3-4 quarterbacks change teams before we reach the draft.

The list, as it stands, is made up of the Saints, Panthers, Falcons, and Browns. All signs are pointing to one of these teams finalizing a deal, barring an 11th-hour surprise. Of these teams, only the Panthers would not have an impact on the QB market of the rest of the league, and it seems they are an outside chance considering Watson’s no-trade clause (and the fact that they’re the sorriest team in the running).

So, what happens if a deal is made with one of the others?

The trade could also be the final block to San Francisco finding a partner to send Jimmy Garoppolo, the Seahawks actively finding someone better than Drew Lock, and potentially even the Packers dealing Jordan Love. There are so many moving pieces to all this, and it’s all at a standstill right now.

Looming over all this is the 2022 NFL Draft. The perceived weakness of the 2022 QB class is not a new revelation. Draft experts have been saying as much for over a year leading up to this moment. Prior to the 2021 college football season there was really only one passer on the radar as a first round talent, and that was Sam Howell out of North Carolina, who took a major step back and is likely now a second round talent. As a result we have Malik Willis heading up the class, an upside gamble who will need time to develop. Then there’s Pitt’s Kenny Pickett, who is widely believed to have the ceiling of a mid-tier QB. That’s not exactly the most enticing use of an early draft pick.

Then, there’s 2023. A draft class that appears to be loaded heading into the season. Where people predicted the 2022 class was always going to be weak, right now next year is out-of-control strong. We could reasonably see five or six QBs go in the first round, with 3-4 making it to the top 10 if they live up to potential.

This means that if you’re a QB-needy team, and you know you’re probably going to suck, then grabbing a bridge QB just to hold you over is much more preferable than going after a passer in this draft. Especially considering the 2022 NFL Draft is exceptionally deep with offensive and defensive line talent. We’re looking at a remarkable, but un-sexy draft coming up in April.

This is why you’re seeing a lot of teams wait this out. It explains the Seahawks’ hesitance to find a new passer, or Indianapolis’ current unwillingness to dive in. Not to mention why Teddy Bridgewater, one of the best available quarterbacks of this free agency period, is taking a small backup contract in Miami. A lot of smart, struggling teams are holding and waiting rather than freaking out to make a desperation move now. Meanwhile, the exceedingly stupid teams, like Carolina, are desperate to deal for Watson.

I’ll cut some slack to the Falcons, Browns and Saints — only because I think a top tier QB could get either of them back on track without many other moves. Or, should I say, I would cut them some slack if trading for Watson and giving him the superstar treatment wasn’t gross. Call me a traditionalist, but I don’t think having Zoom meetings arranged around depositions is the kind of thing NFL teams should be excited about, but here we are.

So, whether you’re a fan of a team without a QB currently, or just trying to understand why we’re seeing so much movement at the position from some teams, and almost none from others, consider these factors at play. Time will tell what the correct approach is, but rest assured: The market on quarterbacks is going to get a whole lot wilder before the start of the season, and we could see a completely different league at QB than a year ago.