NFL playoff picture: NFC clear, AFC less so through Week 13 and Jaguars-Bengals

Just one game remains in Week 13 of the 2023 NFL season. But before the Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals close out the week on Monday Night Football, we can take a look at how the playoff picture is shaping up with the season winding down.

The huge NFC Championship Game rematch between the San Francisco 49ers and the Philadelphia Eagles made things a bit tighter at the top of the conference, and opened the door just a crack for the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC East. Meanwhile out west, the Los Angeles Rams, thanks to three-straight wins, are now in a playoff spot.

Over in the AFC, things are a bit more chaotic. Four teams hold matching 7-5 records, but with just three Wild Card spots available, someone right now is on the outside looking in.

Let’s take a deeper look at the current playoff picture, what games each team has left on their schedule, and the hypothetical playoff matchups in both the AFC and the NFC.

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-2)
Remaining games: at Cowboys, at Seahawks, Giants, Cardinals, at Giants

2. San Francisco 49ers (9-3)
Remaining games: Seahawks, at Cardinals, Ravens, at Commanders, Rams

3. Detroit Lions (9-3)
Remaining games: at Bears, Broncos, at Vikings, at Cowboys, Vikings

4. Atlanta Falcons (6-6)
Remaining games: Buccaneers, at Panthers, Colts, at Bears, at Saints

5. Dallas Cowboys (9-3)
Remaining games: Eagles, at Bills, at Dolphins, Lions, at Commanders

6. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)
Remaining games: at Raiders, at Bengals, Lions, Packers, at Lions

7. Green Bay Packers (6-6)
Remaining games: at Giants, Buccaneers, at Panthers, at Vikings, Bears

Thanks to the Rams’ win over the Browns on Sunday, Los Angeles is firmly in the playoff mix. While they have the same record as the Seahawks, the Rams currently hold a tiebreaker advantage, thanks to their season sweep of Seattle.

However ... they are still on the outside looking in right now. Because with their impressive win Sunday night, the Packers are now in the seventh spot.

At the top of the NFC, things tightened up a little thanks to the 49ers’ win over the Eagles. Philadelphia is still in the driver’s seat for both the NFC East, and the top-overall seed in the NFC. But that could change in a hurry depending on what happens next week when the Eagles travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys.

8. Los Angeles Rams (6-6)
Remaining games: at Ravens, Commanders, Saints, at Giants, at 49ers

9. Seattle Seahawks (6-6)
Remaining games: at 49ers, Eagles, at Titans, Steelers, at Cardinals

10. New Orleans Saints (5-7)
Remaining games: Panthers, Giants, at Rams, at Buccaneers, Falcons

11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7)
Remaining games: at Falcons, at Packers, Jaguars, Saints, at Panthers

If the NFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:

The Philadelphia Eagles would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the NFC.

Note: Due to tiebreakers, the 49ers are now in the No. 2 spot over Detroit.

1. Miami Dolphins (9-3)
Remaining games: Titans, Jets, Cowboys, at Ravens, Bills

2. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
Remaining games: Rams, at Jaguars, at 49ers, Dolphins, Steelers

3. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4)
Remaining games: Bills, at Patriots, Raiders, Bengals, at Chargers

4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4)
Remaining games: at Browns, Ravens, at Buccaneers, Panthers, at Titans

5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
Remaining games: Patriots, at Colts, Bengals, at Seahawks, at Ravens

6. Indianapolis Colts (7-5)
Remaining games: at Bengals, Steelers, at Falcons, Raiders, Texans

7. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
Remaining games: Jaguars, Bears, at Texans, Jets, at Bengals

Things are fascinating in the AFC. The Dolphins hold the top spot in the AFC right now, but that game against the Ravens in Week 17 looms large. Another huge game coming up is next week’s tilt between the Chiefs and the Ravens.

And yet, there is this: If the Jaguars win on Monday night they will have seven wins in the AFC, one more than the Dolphins and the Ravens have at the moment. That would put Jacksonville into the top spot, at least for the moment.

The fight for the Wild Card spots remains tight as well. Right now the Steelers, Colts, and Browns are the three teams in, but that could change over the next few weeks.

Monday Night Football update: Due to the results in Monday night’s game between the Jaguars and the Bengals — won by the Bengals in overtime by a final score of 34-31 — things have shifted in the AFC. Jacksonville was in the No. 3 spot heading into Monday Night Football, with a chance to move into the No. 1 spot with a win. However, with this loss the Jaguars now sit at 8-4, and are the fourth seed based on tiebreakers with Kansas City. The Chiefs’ win over Jacksonville back in Week 2 puts Kansas City ahead.

Yet, the bigger concern for Jacksonville is the status of Trevor Lawrence, who left Monday night’s game with a lower leg injury.

As for Cincinnati, they now sit at 6-6, tied with the Buffalo Bills and the Denver Broncos. The Bengals own the tiebreaker over the Bills, thanks to their win over Buffalo back in Week 9. However, right now Denver has the edge over both Cincinnati and Buffalo. They beat the Bills in Week 10, and have three conference wins, ahead of the Bengals’ two wins in the AFC.

8. Houston Texans (7-5)
Remaining games: at Jets, at Titans, Browns, Titans, at Colts

9. Denver Broncos (6-6)
Remaining games: at Chargers, at Lions, Patriots, Chargers, at Raiders

10. Cincinnati Bengals (6-6)
Remaining games: Colts, Vikings, at Steelers, at Chiefs, Browns

11. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
Remaining games: at Chiefs, Cowboys, at Chargers, Patriots, at Dolphins

12. Los Angeles Chargers (5-7)
Remaining games: Broncos, at Raiders, Bills, at Broncos, Chiefs

13. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
Remaining games: Vikings, Chargers, at Chiefs, At Colts, Broncos

If the AFC playoffs began today, these would be the three matchups on Wild Card Weekend:

The Miami Dolphins would have the first-overall seed, and the first-round bye, in the AFC.

This story has been updated after Cincinnati’s win over Jacksonville.