Instant grades for every 2023 NFL Draft first round pick

Folks we’ve finally made it.

The 2023 NFL Draft is set to get underway, and we’re going to be grading every pick and trade as it happens on night one. Grades will be based on our top-200 big board, which lists the best 200 prospects in the 2023 NFL Draft.

It’ll be interesting to see where these guys end up, especially as the night goes on. We have a pretty good feeling about who’s going to go first overall, but once that hat drops, everything else is still very unclear. The Cardinals have been busy this entire week, aiming to trade back and accumulate more picks or take an offensive tackle to protect QB Kyler Murray. One spot before them, the Houston Texans have also been the subject of a lot of rumors, circling around what they do with the 2nd overall pick. Will they take a QB, such as Ohio State’s CJ Stroud or Kentucky’s Will Levis? Or will they buck conventional wisdom and go with an edge rusher at 2 instead? We’ll soon find out!

In addition, where RB Bijan Robinson will go is an interesting thing to keep an eye on. He’s a surefire talented player, our 5th-rated prospect in the draft. However, the positional value of running backs plus the run that’ll happen on offensive linemen could push Robinson down the board to the point where a team could possibly get him in the teens.

Either way it goes, we’re in for an exciting few hours, so strap in and let’s do some instant grades.

Grade: B+

This has been in the books since essentially late February, but Young is the first Alabama player to go number one overall. I have some very real concerns about Young’s size and stature and how he gets himself into trouble when navigating pressure, but under Panthers HC Frank Reich and the braintrust they have in Carolina, they can craft an RPO-based offense built around Young’s quick release and spatial awareness. They traded up to get their guy, and Young is their guy. Whether or not his size will be an impediment is something to monitor this season.

Grade: A-

Stroud was my QB1 for the draft process for his clean style of play as a pocket passer, with a higher ceiling than people realize. His ability to throw with touch and accuracy to all levels of the field is much like a golfer, dropping passes into the laps of receivers in tight windows. He can improve out of structure, yes, but in an offense that will more than likely be similar to the 49ers zone, boot-action offense, Stroud will thrive. The Texans got my top QB in the class.

Grade: A+

I take back everything I’ve said about Nick Caserio. With all the rumors about the Texans wanting an EDGE over a QB, the Texans used the picks they got from the Deshaun Watson trade and jumped from 12 to 3 to pick the best defensive player on the board. This is how you use the draft rumors to your advantage and not trade away the entire farm for it. Anderson is the best player in this draft, and his ability to cause havoc from multiple fronts and multiple spots is critical for the Niners defense, and they didn’t give up both of their first round picks. This has the potential to be a franchise changing haul.

Grade: A+

Anthony Richardson and the Colts under Shane Steichen is the perfect fit for team and player. Richardson is an electrifying athlete who is a much better navigator in the pocket and processing that people like to give him credit for. His ceiling is extremely high, but his floor isn’t as low as what people think because of how much he adds in the run game, and forcing teams to commit another defender. Sounds a lot like Jalen Hurts, right? Steichen and the Colts will provide a great infrastructure for him, and he doesn’t need to start right away. Love this pick by Indy.

Grade: C+

Look, I love Devon Witherspoon as a player. His feisty play at corner makes up for being 5’10 and his ability to set the tone as a cornerback is something you don’t really see a lot. However, the Seahawks don’t have much defensive line depth right now. Unless they think one of these defensive linemen will fall, this feels like a reach at this point. However, if there’s anyone I trust with a senior corner, it’s Seattle.

Grade: A-

The Cardinals traded back with the Texans from 3, but then swooped back up to take Johnson Jr, trading the 12th pick and the 34th overall pick to come up. I think Johnson is a fantastic player. His movement skills at his size are very good, and combines the best blend of technicality and athleticism. Johnson can play right or left tackle (probably right with DJ Humphries still in Arizona), and set the offensive line for years to come. Or, if the Cardinals want to move on from Humphries, Johnson can kick to left at the end of the year. Kyler wanted him, so Kyler got him.

Grade: B+

With Chandler Jones getting up there in age, it might be time to start looking for the successor to Jones in Las Vegas, and Wilson fits the bill. He’s a big, long, strong edge prospect who can win with power and explosion. Vegas can play him inside on passing downs with Jones and Maxx Crosby, and when Jones leaves, Wilson can take his place. In a division with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Russell Wilson, you need pass rush juice, and Wilson gives them that.

Grade: B

I get it, I understand the value of drafting a RB in the first round, let alone the top 10, is a major risk. However, Bijan Robinson is a special back. His agility and explosiveness make him a threat every time he touches the ball, and he’s also a very good receiver. Tyler Allgeier is a fine back, but with Robinson he can be the Robin to Bijan’s Batman once Cordarrelle Patterson leaves. Arthur Smith was the offensive coordinator in Tennessee with Derrick Henry, and having a bellcow back is paramount. The only reason this isn’t an A is because CB Christian Gonzalez was still on the board, and despite trading for Jeff Okudah, Gonzalez and AJ Terrell would’ve been a feisty CB duo.

Grade: A

On the field, Jalen Carter is the second best player in this draft class. His raw explosion, power and hand quickness are truly a sight to behold when he’s firing on all cylinders. The off the field issues are concerning, but in Philadelphia he has a good nucleus of people around him, including teammates at Georgia Nakobe Dean and Jordan Davis. On the field, this is a perfect fit, allowing Philly to toggle between fronts on multiple occasions, and generate pass rush without blitzing. Carter should be an instant impact player.

Grade: C

Drafting an exclusively right tackle after trading back twice feels like a very large risk for the Bears. They have to be extremely confident in LT Braxton Jones and the rest of their offensive line to not take other guys at the position. On the field, Darnell Wright is extremely strong and has great hands that can latch and drive, while still having a rather high ceiling as a pass protector. This feels risky, and I get why they did it, but I have questions about Braxton Jones and the rest of that offensive line. We’ll see how it works out.

Grade: A+

Skoronski was my top offensive linemen, and getting him at 11 feels like a steal. Skoronski makes up for a lack of length with being extremely technical and powerful with his hands, while having quick feet to be a good blocker on the backside of run plays or in the passing game. The Titans currently have...yeah they don’t have much so adding Skoronski is a high value play. He can play tackle if you want him to, or if you love him at guard you can play him there. The Titans have always been built on being dominant up front, and Skoronski will do that.

Grade: C-

Man...I like Gibbs as a back. His change of direction and speed is a very valuable addition to any offense. However, the Lions currently have De’Andre Swift and David Montgomery on the roster, and still have considerable holes on their defense, especially up front. This feels like a major reach.

Grade: C+

I think Van Ness is a couple of years away from being good right now. He still doesn’t have a defined pass rush plan and relies very much on strength right now. However, he does have an extremely high motor and can convert speed to power in flashes. This is a Packers type of player, but one I think they could’ve traded back for.

Grade: B+

Jones wasn’t going to make it past the New York Jets, so the Steelers leaped at the opportunity to jump ahead and pick Jones. Broderick Jones is an extremely athletic, but still a little rough around the edges. His athleticism gives a high floor, and his play in space shows you an extremely high ceiling. The Steelers needed a tackle badly, and they got a good one in Jones.

Grade: C

This kind of feels like the Jets really wanted Broderick Jones, but couldn’t trade out. I love Will McDonald as a player; his counter rushing ability on top of his speed makes him a fantastic rotational pass rusher, despite having a smaller, thinner frame at 239 pounds. However, I do feel like the Jets could’ve gotten him a little later in the draft. I think he’ll provide a nice contrast to what the Jets already have in their EDGE room, but I don’t like the value here.

Grade: B-

Emmanuel Forbes is an interesting case. The ball production and instincts are there, he’s an incredibly skilled prospect. However, he’s 166 pounds soaking wet and probably only works in an off coverage defensive scheme. I get the pick here for Washington, they needed an outside cornerback. But with Christian Gonzalez still on the board, this feels weird. This is a scheme fit, though. So I understand, kinda?

Grade: A+

This is possibly the steal of first round. Gonzalez’s tape is extremely clean. He’s a fluid, smooth mover who can thrive in man or zone. the ball production might be a little lacking, but his length, size and speed is a perfect fit for a Bill Belichick led defense. Combine that with trading back and gaining more picks, and the Pats continue their voodoo magic.

Grade: C+

This is another instance of loving the player, but not liking the value as much. Jack Campbell is my top linebacker in this draft. His ability to play within the box as a run defender combined with his added value in pass coverage is great in the modern NFL. But with still so many needs along that defensive front, drafting an off ball linebacker feels like a reach.

Grade: B+

This feels like a nice spot for Kancey. He’s an instant value pass rusher, who despite being shorter and smaller in comparison to other defensive tackles, wins with explosion and burst, with a high motor. He won’t have to play much on early downs against the run with Vita Vea and Greg Gaines, and can focus more on being a pass rusher first as he develops. Good fit.

Grade: A-

This is another guy who fits his new team like a glove. Smith-Njigba is a professional route runner who thrives in the slot. His ability to create space and get open is very advanced for his age, and in Seattle he doesn’t have to play as much on the outside with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett out there. He’ll make Seattle more efficient in the short to intermediate areas of the field, while Lockett and Metcalf take the top off the defense.

Grade: B

The Chargers needed someone who could take the top off the defense, so this feels like a good fit. However, I have many concerns about Johnston’s consistency with catching the ball and a lack of polish in the route running department. The Chargers offense needs some juice, so while Johnston develops his route tree, the Chargers can run him on jet sweeps, and keep his routes to being vertical or running away from people horizontally. He’s a YAC receiver, who will turn up the Chargers offense. I just wonder if Zay Flowers or Jordan Addison might have been a better fit.

Grade: A-

His skill feels kind of redundant with Devin Duvernay in the room, but Flowers will give the Ravens offense some more explosiveness in their passing game. The Ravens needed juice so bad they signed DeSean Jackson last year. Flowers is an explosive receiver who can get downfield in a hurry, and open up the offense for guys like Rashod Bateman and Mark Andrews. With QB Lamar Jackson back in the fold, this offense could be cooking with grease now.

Grade: A

I love Jordan Addison. Despite his size and frame, he just knows how to get open. He has a nice understanding of how to create space and how to work blind spots against opposing defenders. In Minnesota, he won’t face as much attention because of some guy named Justin Jefferson, but he’s a very nice complement to Jefferson and will make that offense more efficient.

Grade: B+

Banks just feels like a Wink Martindale corner. Good height, long, extremely athletic and is confident in his press ability. He’ll swing and miss sometimes but he’s a very nice fit in New York and can operate next to Adoree Jackson. He’ll need to be coached a little more with his patience, but he’s a great CB for this defense.

Grade: C+

Kincaid kind of feels like a luxury pick here for the Bills. What he does extremely well is essentially be a big receiver, who can navigate space extremely well and make catches outside his frame. However, the Bills still don’t have enough talent up front on the offensive line to protect Josh Allen, and defensively still need pass rush. The passing game will thrive however, and it’ll lead to fireworks. Knowing how the Bills’ season ended, though, I would think the Bills would go towards establishing the trenches.

Grade: B

I think I like the idea of Mazi Smith more than the actual player right now. Smith is a big, powerful nose tackle who can become a true force on all three downs, but is so inconsistent with pad level and motor that picking him comes with an inherent risk. The Cowboys struggled to stop the run last year, and Smith can come in and do that while developing into a three down player. Nose tackle isn’t a sexy pick, but with the teams they have to play in the NFC, he’s a crucial piece. He’ll need some good coaching, however.

Grade: B+

With the Jaguars need at nickel, I thought this would for sure be a DB like Brian Branch or Joey Porter Jr. However, with Cam Robinson both coming off an injury and being suspended for the first few games of the season, Harrison becomes a necessity for the Jaguars. He’s still very young, but he’s very athletic and can move, which is something that Doug Pederson has always valued in his offensive linemen. Cam Robinson can also be a potential out next offseason, so Harrison could play guard before kicking out to tackle once Robinson is healthy, or stick at left tackle.

Grade: A-

The Bengals filled most of their needs through free agency, so this pick is really one that can help them now in their rotation and in the future. Murphy is a big, long edge player who is still scraping the surface of what he can be as a pass rusher. He’s a disciplined run defender who at worst is going to be a solid rotational defensive end. With Trey Hendrickson getting closer to 30 and Sam Hubbard having a potential out in his contract, Murphy is a bet towards the future.

Grade: A

If the Saints can get 2021 Bresee, this pick is a steal. Bresee is an explosive pocket penetrator who uses first step quickness and more underrated strength in his hands. His health will be a very big question, as will his pad level, but in New Orleans, he’ll be asked to penetrate the pocket as a three technique defensive tackle, his best spot.

Grade: A+

The Eagles are just trying to recreate the 2021 Georgia defense, and that’s something I would do as well. Smith is a highly athletic pass rusher who is much better against the run right now than he is against the pass. He doesn’t have to play right away with Haason Reddick and Josh Sweat in the fold, and can rotate in and help create pressure without using blitzes. The Eagles got a steal.

Grade: B+

The Chiefs are in a position where they don’t need much, but pass rush is a place where they can improve. Especially in the variety of guys they have. Anudike-Uzomah is a different type of pass rusher than George Karlaftis, opting to win with speed and bend rather than pure power. The motor is always high and he has really nice hands and can close the gap extremely quickly. This is a nice pairing next to Chris Jones and across from Karlaftis. Not a sexy pick, but a solid one.