The Arizona Cardinals hold the keys to the 2023 NFL Draft’s first round

Thanks to two recent developments, the 2023 NFL Draft does not begin with the first-overall selection.

It begins with the third, currently held by new general manager Monti Ossenfort and the Arizona Cardinals.

The first event? The long-anticipated trade involving the Chicago Bears and the first-overall selection. As many expected, general manager Ryan Poles traded out of the first spot in the draft, finding a partner in the Carolina Panthers. The move gives the Bears more draft capital in next year’s draft as well as a solid receiver in D.J. Moore to help the development of quarterback Justin Fields.

The move almost guarantees that quarterbacks will be the first two players selected in the draft, given the presence of the Houston Texans in the second spot.

The second event?

Anthony Richardson’s pre-draft process.

It began with his performance at the 2023 Scouting Combine, when he put together perhaps the best workout from a quarterback in recent memory. You could feel the draft discussion shift inside Lucas Oil Stadium that Saturday, as Richardson first tested like an elite athlete, but then threw like a first-round quarterback, and an early first-round pick at that.

For reference, here is a look at Richardson’s standing in mock drafts over the past few months, courtesy of NFLMockDraftDatabase. You can see that at the end of February, Richardson was sitting in the teens. But by March 6th, he was well inside the top-ten selections, and now is inside the top-five picks:

Of course, mock drafts are just data points, and perhaps imperfect data points at that. Still, these perhaps flawed data points bolster a claim that Richardson has put himself in the top-five discussion.

Yet, the Cardinals are unlikely to take a quarterback with the third-overall selection.

The team picking behind them, however, is almost guaranteed to draft a quarterback. Indianapolis Colts general manager Chris Ballard discussed the position at the end of the season, saying that he would do “whatever it takes” to get up to the top of the board to find the right player for the position.

However, their former head coach, Frank Reich, spoiled that party down in Carolina.

Now the Colts are looking at perhaps the third quarterback off the board.

Unless a team moves ahead of them.

Because behind the Colts at four are a handful of other organizations that have expressed interest in quarterbacks this cycle: The Seattle Seahawks at five overall, the Detroit Lions at six overall, the Las Vegas Raiders at seven overall, and then the Tennessee Titans, who sit just outside the top ten, at 11.

If the Colts still want to get their quarterback in this draft, they might still need to trade up, even just one spot, to make sure they get their guy.

All of this could add up to a bidding war for the third-overall selection.

Such moves are features of some recent mock drafts, from insiders and analysts alike. ESPN’s Todd McShay, in his most recent mock draft, has the Colts coming up one spot in a trade with the Cardinals, and sending the pick at four, their third-round pick at 79, and a future second-round pick to Arizona.

The Cardinals still draft Will Anderson Jr. in this scenario.

In a mock draft at Pro Football Focus, analyst Brad Spielberger has the Cardinals trading with the Lions and sliding back to the sixth-overall spot. This scenario has Detroit sending a host of picks (six-overall, 48-overall, 81-overall, and a 2024 first-round selection) to Arizona in exchange for the third pick.

The Cardinals draft pass rusher Tyree Wilson from Texas Tech in this scenario.

One last example comes from Josh Edwards of CBS Sports, who actually has the Cardinals trading down twice. First with the Colts, who move up one spot to draft Will Levis, then with the Raiders, who come up from seven to draft Anthony Richardson.

The Cardinals are forced to settle for Jalen Carter in this scenario.

Again, mock drafts are perhaps an imperfect data point, so these potential trades might not reflect the full value of the third-overall selection.

But the Cardinals, thanks to two big events from March, are in a very good position, at least regarding the draft. There are some other concerns in Arizona, however.

Yet when it comes to the draft, they are in good shape.

Because the draft starts with them.