Patrick Mahomes is the NFL’s most underpaid player, even at $450 million

At the time it was viewed as “unprecedented,” “massive,” and “historic.”

By today’s standards, it almost seems quaint, and it certainly looks like the NFL’s biggest bargain, even with a $450 million price tag.

It was the summer of 2020, and the Kansas City Chiefs, coming off their first Super Bowl win in 50 years. Their first order of business that summer? Locking up quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a long-term contract.

The team did just that, inking Mahomes to a ten-year contract extension with a total value of $450 million. Under the terms of the contract, $63.0819 million was fully guaranteed at signing, and Mahomes received a $10 million signing bonus. The contract also included $141 million guaranteed for injury, and a total of $477.631 million can become guaranteed over the life of the deal based on Mahomes’ roster status.

The move reshaped the quarterback-contract landscape. While it was not the first ten-year deal for a quarterback, the money involved surpassed every prior deal handed out to a quarterback. Brett Favre was the first passer to receive a ten-year deal, signing a ten-year, $101.5 million contract with the Green Bay Packers in March of 2001. Drew Bledsoe joined the club days later, inking a ten-year deal of his own worth $103 million.

More on how that story ended in a moment.

Three other quarterbacks reached the ten-year mark prior to Mahomes. Next was Donovan McNabb, who reached agreement on a 12-year deal with the Philadelphia Eagles worth up to $115 million. Daunte Culpepper and Michael Vick were the next two, with Culpepper signing a ten-year deal in 2003 worth up to $102 million, while Vick’s ten-year, $130 million deal came down in 2004.

Then came Mahomes, years later, with his historic deal. Obviously the numbers were much different, with Mahomes’ contract averaging out to $45 million per season. These were truly earth-shattering numbers, and the contract linked Mahomes to the organization for a decade, with the QB not set to test free agency until 2032.

“Since he joined the Chiefs just a few years ago, Patrick has developed into one of the most prolific athletes in all of sports,” Chiefs chairman Clark Hunt said in a statement about the contract.

“With his dynamic play and infectious personality, he is one of the most recognized and beloved figures to put on the Chiefs uniform,” added Hunt. “He’s an extraordinary leader and a credit to the Kansas City community, and I’m delighted that he will be a member of the Chiefs for many years to come.”

In their analysis of the deal, Pro Football Focus outlined how it completely reshaped the market. “This deal completely changes the NFL contract landscape and will have an impact for decades to come,” wrote Brad Spielberger and Eric Eager at the time.

That analysis was exactly right. But what came next in that piece may be the most accurate bit of analysis ever crafted on the pages of PFF.

It may seem insane to say, but there is still the possibility that down the line we view this deal as something of a discount for the Chiefs. A $45 million average per year in 2020 is good for 22.7% of the salary cap, easily breaking the record of 19% held by Brett Favre from his deal back in 1997. Nevertheless, if NFL league revenues recover from COVID-19 and grow at roughly the same annual rate as they did from 2011-2020, there could be a salary cap in the $250 million range in 2025 — $45 million would account for 18% of this hypothetical 2025 salary cap, which is a lower percentage than what Aaron Rodgers (18.9%) and Russell Wilson (18.6%) got on their second big extensions.

Because what happened?

Exactly that.

Since Mahomes signed his deal, a number of quarterbacks have surpassed his contract, both in terms of average annual value, and guaranteed money. Thanks to the new deal Justin Herbert signed with the Los Angeles Chargers on Tuesday seven NFL quarterbacks — Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Deshaun Watson, and Kyler Murray — have contracts with a higher AAV than Mahomes does.

Eight quarterbacks have more in total guaranteed money than Mahomes, and 11 quarterbacks have more in fully guaranteed money than Mahomes:

And as PFF theorized back in 2020, the cap certainly has grown. Spielberger and Eager hypothesized that the cap might hit around $250 million by 2025, and that Mahomes’ deal would account 18% of that hypothetical cap.

In fact, the Chiefs are already there. While the cap has yet to hit that $250 million mark, because of how Kansas City structured the deal, they still have flexibility. As outlined in this piece from Arrowhead Pride, most of Mahomes’ compensation “is in the form of roster bonuses, [which] can be reclassified as signing bonuses.”

So right now Mahomes’ 2023 salary cap charge accounts for 18.08% of the team’s cap, roughly the percentage PFF theorized he would account for in 2025 with a hypothetical cap of $250 million.

Again, a bargain when you consider the return on investment. Since Mahomes signed the extension the Chiefs have appeared in two more Super Bowls, winning their third title in franchise history last February. Mahomes is also coming off a year that saw him win MVP, and be named as a First-Team All-Pro for the second time in his career.

And he shows no signs of slowing down, nor do the Chiefs.

Earlier we mentioned Bledsoe, and outlined that we would revisit that contract. All of the prior quarterbacks who signed ten-year deals did not finish those contracts with the team, including Bledsoe. Months after putting pen to paper on his contact, Bledsoe was knocked out of bounds by Mo Lewis of the New York Jets, and suffered a collapsed lung.

As he left the field, his backup came on to replace him.

Tom Brady.

We know how that story ended, with Brady delivering six Super Bowls to New England. Yet, over the life of his time with the Patriots, Brady was always underpaid, as his cap hit with New England never went higher than 13.6%. That allowed the Patriots a ton of roster flexibility around him.

Something similar could be happening in Kansas City.

So if the Mahomes contract looks like a bargain now, imagine what it could look like in a few years.