How Kellen Moore holds the keys to maximizing Justin Herbert’s new deal

Justin Herbert became the latest quarterback to cash in on Tuesday, signing a new contract with the Los Angeles Chargers that puts him among the game’s highest-paid players. Under the terms of the deal, only Patrick Mahomes’ contract has more in total money, but Herbert is now the highest-paid player in the NFL on an Average Annual Value (AAV) basis.

Now comes the hard part. Living up to that deal.

At first blush, this might seem a shoo-in for Herbert. He is among the game’s emerging stars at the quarterback position, with a combination of arm talent and athleticism that sees him ranked near the top of almost any quarterback tier list. Herbert is coming off his first playoff appearance as well, and while that did not end well for him, it was an impressive season on the whole. Especially when you consider he was dealing with a number of injuries, including fractured rib cartilage and a labrum injury in his non-throwing shoulder which required offseason surgery.

Still, the Chargers — and their fans — will want to see results.

A person in a particular position to help deliver those, besides Herbert himself? Incoming offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Who might be the critical component to this particular puzzle.

While Herbert has become a darling among the film scouting community, there was a certain frustration watching him over the years. Given his arm talent and ability to generate velocity to all levels of the field — more on that in a moment — one would expect to see the Chargers lean into a downfield passing attack. Rely on Herbert’s arm to generate explosive plays in the passing game.

However, that was the exception, and not the norm, the past few seasons under former offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. Lombardi, a branch off the Sean Payton coaching tree. favored a West Coast, horizontal-based passing attack.

In 2021, Herbert’s first full year as the starter and Lombardi’s first season as the OC in Los Angeles, Herbert posted an Average Depth of Target (aDOT) of 7.9 yards according to charting data from Pro Football Focus. That saw Herbert rank 25th in the NFL among qualified passers.

Last year, that number dropped to just 6.9. While Herbert’s injuries may have played a role, that saw the big-armed passer check in at 39th in the NFL in aDOT.

However, when he did get the chance to go deep, he was often creating those explosive plays. For example, during the 2021 season Herbert posted an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 51.6% on those deep throws (defined as throws of 20 yards or more), fourth-highest in the NFL among qualified passers. That year Herbert completed 48.4% of such throws for 1,051 yards and nine touchdowns. That yardage number tied Herbert with Josh Allen for sixth in the NFL, and the nine touchdowns ranked Herbert third.

While Herbert’s efficiency and production dipped a bit on deeper throws last year, 7 of his 25 touchdown passes last season came on throws of 20 yards or more.

Throws like this cannon shot against the Kansas City Chiefs:

This comes on a variation of the “Burner” concept you might see from the San Francisco 49ers or other Kyle Shanahan-inspired systems. It is a tweak on the common “Yankee” or “post/over” concept that every team has in its playbook, with a few additional elements. First is the rollout factor, as Herbert comes out of a run fake and slides to his right.

Then there is the adjustment of the deepest route. Instead of it being a post route, which would track with Herbert in the same direction as his rollout, it is a deep corner, which actually breaks away from Herbert’s roll.

What does this mean for the play in question? Herbert lets this throw fly from the right hashmark on his own 40-yard line. Keenan Allen makes the catch below the opposite numbers, on the Kansas City 5-yard line.

That is a throw of at least 55 yards in the air, but Pythagoras might have a more accurate number for us ...

The point? Herbert has a big arm, and it would be fascinating to see the Chargers lean into that trait.

Enter Moore.

As Herbert was working a more horizontal offense under Lombardi, Moore was doing things a bit differently with Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys. Moore served as the team’s offensive coordinator from 2019 until 2022 and under two very different coaches, Jason Garrett and Mike McCarthy. While Garrett favored a more downfield approach, McCarthy is certainly cut from the West Coast cloth.

But even under McCarthy, Prescott had more chances to sling it deep. According to PFF, Prescott posted an aDOT of 8.6 last season, ranking him seventh in the NFL among qualified passers.

That was 1.7 yards more than Herbert’s aDOT a season ago.

Herbert has the talent to go deep more, and the players around him to make it work, which he noted at practice Wednesday:

He might now have the right offensive coordinator as well.

One that can help him live up to his new contract.