NFL playoff picture: What Bills win over Lions mean for AFC & NFC standings

Game result: The Bills won a 48-42 shootout over the Lions that was not really as close as the final score might suggest. Buffalo never trailed and pulled away in the second half to improve to 11-3. The Bills remain two games back of the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed, but did improve to a game over the Steelers for the No. 2 seed.

The Lions dropped to 12-2 with the win. They are now tied with the Vikings in the NFC North, but have the tiebreaker edge due to their Week 7 win in Minneapolis. The Lions and Vikings face off in Week 18, so there’s a good chance the division title comes down to that game. The Lions remain the No. 1 seed due to having a better conference record than the Eagles.

The Buffalo Bills head to Detroit to take on the Lions in a potential NFL Game of the Year candidate. This is the first time since the two teams met on Thanksgiving Day in 2022, and the profile of each franchise has only gone higher since that game, won late by the Bills.

The Lions are just 2.5-point favorites over the Bills in their own building, per FanDuel Sportsbook, and it’s the first time in two months Buffalo has been an underdog.

Buffalo is 10-3 and they have already clinched the AFC East title. They are in a fight for the one seed with the Kansas City Chiefs, who they defeated in November, but after a loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week, the Pittsburgh Steelers were able to tie Buffalo in the standings. If Buffalo wants to find a way to get that bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they are probably going to have to win out including beating a dangerous Lions team in their own building.

The Lions have the best record in the NFL at 12-1 but they haven’t been able to take their foot off the gas, as the Minnesota Vikings sit just one game behind them at 11-2. While other teams with 10+ wins are able to clinch their division, the NFC North is going down to the wire. Detroit has a win over Minnesota, but the two teams will see each other in the final week of the season. Detroit wants to put some real estate between themselves and the Vikings with the Philadelphia Eagles also lurking in the conference standings a game back at 11-2.

For the Bills, if they end up in a tie with the Steelers, a win in this game would certainly help their Strength of Victory tiebreaker. Buffalo and Pittsburgh have identical conference records right now, so the reason the Bills sit in second is Strength of Victory. By the end of the season, though, the Record vs Common Opponents will slot ahead of SOV after both teams complete their four games against the Ravens, Jets, and Chiefs.

For the Lions, the tiebreakers vs Minnesota are already locked in. If both teams run the table and Detroit’s only loss is to Minnesota, the Lions still win the NFC North on Record vs Common Opponents. (The Lions beat the Rams and the Vikings didn’t.) So this game only matter in overall record for the Lions.

In the NFC race, the Lions already have a huge lead over the Eagles in Strength of Victory, but Philly has the chance to close the gap with wins over the Steelers and Commanders. The NFC East games are hurting the Eagles here.