NFL playoff picture: What Texans win over Texans mean for AFC standings

Game result: The Texans beat the Dolphins 20-12. With the win, Houston improved to 9-5 is on the verge of a playoff berth. If the Colts lose to the Broncos in the late window, the Texans will clinch the AFC South title. The Dolphins dropped to 6-8 and face a playoff elimination scenario in Week 16.

The NFL’s Week 15 schedule features an AFC matchup that looked like a bigger deal three months ago, but is still important for the playoff picture of both teams. The Houston Texans host the Miami Dolphins at NRG Stadium with kickoff scheduled for 1 p.m. ET. Houston is a 2.5-point favorite at FanDuel Sportsbook.

The Dolphins stumbled through the first half of the 2024 regular season, sitting at 2-6 two games into Tua Tagovailoa’s return from another concussion. However, they have turned things back up in the five weeks since, winning four of their past five games to sit at 6-7 heading into this matchup.

The Bills have already clinched the AFC East, which means the Dolphins are playing for a wild card berth. The Dolphins enter Sunday sitting in ninth place, tied with the Colts but losing the tiebreaker to Indianapolis due to their head-to-head loss. Both teams sit two games back of all three wild card teams with the Ravens, Chargers, and Broncos all sitting at 8-5. The Dolphins may not need to win out, but they can’t afford any more losses for the time-being.

The Texans have stumbled in the middle of the season, but benefit from playing in the abysmal AFC South. They are 8-5 and hold a two-game lead over the Colts for the division title. Houston can clinch the division title this weekend with a win and a Colts loss. Houston swept the season series with Indianapolis, so they have secured the tiebreaker.

The Dolphins are battling as many as five teams for a wild card berth. Since not everybody has played everybody else, conference record will be the first implicated tiebreaker, which means this game is key in that regard. The next tiebreaker would be common games with their competitors.

This is likely to have no impact on the Texans tiebreaker situation. They already have their division tiebreaker locked up. They sit two games back of the Steelers and Bills in the race for higher playoff seeding, and with four games left, it’s unlikely they pass either of them. Additionally, Buffalo has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Houston.