Dan Campbell’s onside kick decision wasn’t nearly as dumb as it seemed in Lions-Bills

The Bills and Lions gave us the best game of the season on Sunday afternoon in a high-level offensive score-fest in which both teams were so damn good that both (normally brilliant) defensive units were at a loss for how to stop each other.

One of the game’s pivotal moments came with 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter, with Buffalo leading 38-28. Down two scores Lions head coach Dan Campbell called for an onside kick, desperate to recover the ball keep the game close. It didn’t work.

There’s a tsunami of criticism bearing down on Campbell for making the move, with fans saying he “blew the game,” and even football analysts wondering why the hell he was so aggressive when he didn’t need to be.

The most confusing part of this play isn’t making the call, it’s the backlash it’s receiving.

This was a game that ended with 90 combined points and 1,080 total yards of offense — with each team going well over 500. It was abundantly clear defense wasn’t on the cards, especially in the second half.

After these teams returned from the break we had four total touchdowns, two per team, in the span of 15 minutes. The only reason Detroit fell behind in scoring pace was due to a fumble by Amon-Ra St. Brown, which flipped the flow of possession.

Not only were both teams having no problem scoring, they were having no problem scoring on long drives. At the time of the onside kick the Bills had FIVE drives of 70+ yards, and moving the ball wasn’t the issue.

In this kind of game there’s effectively not much different between kicking to the 25 and asking a team to drive 70 yards, as trying to onside, failing, and making them drive 30.

Obviously if anyone knew that Mack Hollins was going to bat the ball to himself and take off down the sideline for a 38 yard return it would have changed the decision making. There’s no doubt it made the ensuing touchdown easier for the Bills.

However, the vast majority of onside kicks are returned for fewer than 10 yards, with kicks on average ending up netting four yards or less as hands teams dive on the ball on manage only short returns.

This brings us back to the first point, where neither team could stop each other.

When the Lions scored their touchdown to make the game 38-28 the ESPN win probability graph had Buffalo and 92.6%. After the failed onside pick it went to 96% to the Bills. We know these metrics aren’t perfect, but at the very least we have some evidence that Campbell’s decision only cost the Lions 3.4% in their win probability.

Meanwhile if they’d recovered the kick it erases the fumble, and likely could have led to the Lions flipping the game. It was a risk, sure — but not a wild one.

There’s something to be said for sticking to your guns and not changing your approach to the game. In the grand scheme of things the Lions still own the 1st place tiebreaker over the Eagles, and sure it would have made their postseason path easier — but Detroit closes out the season against the Bears, 49ers, and Vikings. All should be winnable games.

Detroit likes to play loose. They take risks. This is their football DNA. Just because this one play backfired doesn’t mean it was a terrible call. Dan Campbell was trying to find anything that could stick to get his team back on the right side of the scoreboard in a game where nobody was able to stop the flood of scoring.

There was nothing wrong with the onside kick call. Even if it didn’t pan out.