NFL playoff picture: What does Cardinals-Rams mean for NFC standings?

The Cardinals face the Rams in LA on Saturday. We break down what the game means for the NFL playoff picture.

Updated Dec 30, 2024, 4:48 AM UTC

Photo by Emilee Chinn/Getty Images

Mark Schofield is a former college quarterback and attorney covering the NFL and F1.

Game update (Sunday night): The Rams have clinched a playoff spot, thanks to their win over Arizona and a collection of wins around the league that locked up the fifth tiebreaker for the Rams over the Seahawks.

Game update (Sunday evening): More help comes in for the Rams as the Vikings defeat the Packers. Now Los Angeles just needs 0.5 wins from either the 49ers or the Commanders to clinch the NFC West. Ties count as a half-win, so if either of those games end in a tie it will be enough for the Rams.

Game update (Sunday afternoon): The Los Angeles Rams received a little more help in the early Sunday window. Buffalo’s win over the New York Jets dropped the amount of wins the Rams need from other teams to clinch the fifth tiebreaker over the Seattle Seahawks to just 1.5.

If the Rams can get 1.5 more wins from the following teams: Minnesota, San Francisco, Washington, and Cleveland, they will clinch a playoff spot.

Game update (Saturday night): The Rams won, so they only need a few more Week 17 wins from some helpers to clinch a playoff spot.

Game update (Saturday afternoon): The Cincinnati Bengals’ thrilling overtime win over the Denver Broncos is one of the 3.5 wins the Los Angeles Rams need to clinch the NFC West in Week 17, provided they defeat the Arizona Cardinals tonight.

Saturday’s NFL tripleheader draws to a close when the Arizona Cardinals take on the Los Angeles Rams in an NFC West showdown at SoFi Stadium.

While the Cardinals have already been eliminated from playoff contention, the Rams can clinch the NFC West — and eliminate the Seattle Seahawks from the postseason — with a win over Arizona, and then a lot of help.

Let’s break it all down.

Rams playoff picture

Entering Week 17, the Rams had three pathways to clinching the NFC West title. The first two required the Seahawks to lose on Thursday night against the Chicago Bears, but Seattle’s 6-3 victory erased those two pathways for Los Angeles.

They still have a way they can clinch the division, but it gets us deep into the tiebreakers.

If the Rams lose on Saturday night, the Week 18 game between Seattle and Los Angeles is for the division title.

However, if the Rams win, Seattle winning on Thursday night — and again in Week 18 — may not be enough to clinch the division title for the Seahawks. Why? A Seahawks Week 18 win in this scenario would have both teams at 10-7. They would have split the season series (the first tiebreaker), they would have the same division record (the second tiebreaker), they would have the same records in common games (the third tiebreaker), and the same record in NFC games (the fourth tiebreaker).

That would leave the fifth tiebreaker, the uncommon “strength of victory” tiebreaker.

At the moment, the Rams have the edge in that fifth tiebreaker, thanks to wins over the Buffalo Bills and the Minnesota Vikings. They can clinch that fifth tiebreaker — and the division — if they get 3.5 wins from these teams over the rest of Week 17: The Vikings (against the Green Bay Packers), the Bills (against the New York Jets), the San Francisco 49ers (against the Detroit Lions), the Washington Commanders (against the Atlanta Falcons), the Cincinnati Bengals (against the Denver Broncos) and the Cleveland Browns (against the Miami Dolphins).

If a combination of four of those teams win, and the Rams win on Saturday night, Los Angeles has won the NFC West and the Seahawks are eliminated. However, a Rams loss, or a Rams win plus three or less of those teams winning above, and the Week 18 game between Seattle and Los Angeles is for the NFC West.

It is also worth noting that under tiebreaker procedures, a tie counts as a half-win. So technically Los Angeles needs three wins and a tie to clinch the fifth tiebreaker.

What Rams-Cardinals means for other NFC playoff hopefuls

The only other team with a vested interest in Rams-Cardinals is Seattle. A Rams loss means Seattle can win the NFC West in Week 18 with a win over the Rams. A Los Angeles win then puts those other games — and the fifth tiebreaker — into play.