Why the Falcons cannot clinch a playoff berth in Week 17

Game update (Sunday night): The Atlanta Falcons lost to the Washington Commanders on Sunday night, but they remain alive in the NFC South title race. However, they do not control their own destiny. They will need a Buccaneers loss, and a win over the Carolina Panthers, to win the NFC South and qualify for the playoffs.

Game update (Sunday afternoon): With the Tampa Bay Buccaneers dismantling the Carolina Panthers, the Atlanta Falcons cannot clinch a playoff spot in Week 17, even with a win tonight over the Washington Commanders.

However, because of their tiebreaker advantage over Tampa Bay — thanks to their season sweep of the Buccaneers — Atlanta cannot be eliminated this week, even with a loss tonight.

The Atlanta Falcons made the bold decision to bench Kirk Cousins in place of rookie Michael Penix Jr. last week.

The move paid off as Atlanta steamrolled the New York Giants by a final score of 34-17, keeping their playoff hopes alive.

Now there is a potential scenario where the Falcons clinch a playoff spot here in Week 17, but they will need some help to punch their postseason ticket on Sunday.

The Falcons have one pathway to clinching a playoff spot here in Week 17, and winning the NFC South.

One element of this scenario is within their control. If the Atlanta Falcons defeat the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, they will have accomplished the big item on their “to do” list.

However, they also need a bit of help here in Week 17 if they are to win the division today and clinch a playoff spot. They also need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose their game against the Carolina Panthers in the 1:00 p.m. Eastern window. Simply put, a Buccaneers loss, and a Falcons win, and Atlanta has won the division. Atlanta’s season sweep of the Buccaneers gives them a critical tiebreaker advantage.

But if the Buccaneers win or tie in the early window, the Falcons cannot clinch the division, even with a win over the Commanders.

Atlanta’s tiebreaker advantage over the Buccaneers means that they cannot be eliminated from playoff contention this week.

1. x-Detroit Lions (13-2, win over MIN, 9-1 NFC)
2. x-Philadelphia Eagles (12-3)
3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6, win over SEA, 6-5 NFC)
4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7, wins over TB)

5. x-Minnesota Vikings (13-2, loss to DET)
6. x-Green Bay Packers (11-4)
7. Washington Commanders (10-5)

9. Seattle Seahawks (9-7, 6-6 NFC)
8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7, losses to ATL, 6-4 NFC)
10. Dallas Cowboys (7-8, 5-5 NFC) — eliminated
11. Arizona Cardinals (7-9, 3-6 NFC) — eliminated
12. San Francisco 49ers (6-9, win over DAL) — eliminated
13. New Orleans Saints (5-10) — eliminated
14. Carolina Panthers (4-11, loss to CHI) — eliminated
15. Chicago Bears (5-11, win over CAR) — eliminated
16. New York Giants (2-13) — eliminated

Teams with an x have clinched a playoff berth.