J.J. McCarthy’s shocking rise is NFL Draft’s biggest rumor right now

Quarterback Tax (n): a phenomenon that takes place during the NFL Draft. Quarterbacks who might be graded lower are picked higher than believed, because the need for a quarterback in the NFL takes priority over everything.

The JJ McCarthy discourse is getting louder and louder as we get closer to the first round of the NFL Draft. Once believed to be a late first round pick, McCarthy now is commonly slated in the top ten of mock drafts, with some even having him as the third quarterback taken off the board. After a fine day throwing the ball during the Combine, especially in comparison to the other QBs next to him during the throwing session (QBs Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels didn’t throw).

After the NFL Combine, ESPN’s Dan Graziano published a rumor report in which he believes McCarthy is going to go in the top-10, saying he ‘wouldn’t be surprised’ if it ended up that way. SNY’s Connor Hughes believes there’s a strong chance McCarthy goes to the New York Giants at No. 6. While Daniel Jones is still on the roster, there’s a potential out in his contract via OverTheCap where he’s no longer owed guaranteed money in 2025 or 2026. The opportunity for the Giants to pick McCarthy, let him sit behind Jones in 2024 then allow him to take the reins in 2025 might be incredibly enticing as they try to rebuild.

During the Combine, NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah mentioned that McCarthy’s stock around the NFL could be reaching as high as the third overall pick. He also noted McCarthy would draw consideration in the 8-12 range with the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos all holding picks there .

ESPN draft legend Mel Kiper Jr. said Drake Maye vs. McCarthy is a real contest for QB3 in the draft. He said McCarthy could overtake Maye at No. 3, but he currently has him at No. 12.

The McCarthy discussion has been a real interesting one to follow. You can see the traits of an above average NFL QB in there. The aggressiveness over the middle of the field, the accuracy and arm strength to fit passes in tight windows of crowded areas, and he’s a good enough athlete to pull a zone read or be put on the move to make offense easier. However, there’s a lot of inconsistency with both his footwork and his process when translating his game to the NFL level. In addition, the fact that he simply didn’t throw the ball very often has been used against him in this draft process.

For me, I see it two ways: first, it simply worked for Michigan. They were so darn good at running the football that all McCarthy needed to do was hit a couple of throws a game and it would keep the Wolverine boat afloat. It’s not the job of the university to run concepts to get a QB drafted; it’s their job to win games, and Michigan did what they needed to win. However, it makes it hard from an evaluation perspective to find many NFL passing concepts or throws on tape for McCarthy, simply because there isn’t a lot of them. Yes, he’s talented but there simply isn’t a lot of NFL-caliber throws on the tape. Projection is going to be the major key for McCarthy in the NFL. He might not be fantastic right now, but he can become a good NFL QB in the right place.

The McCarthy rumors are certainly going to heat up as the NFL Draft inches closer and closer. With a lot of teams needing a quarterback (and the Justin Fields trade market seemingly drying up), McCarthy could launch himself into the top ten based solely on NFL teams wanting to get a QB and that fifth-year option associated with it. Which team will be the one that ends up with him? Well that’s the fun of it all.