Week 3 NFL Survivor pool strategy with safe, value, trap picks

Welcome back for Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season. It’s been a wild first two weeks with some huge favorites getting upset in stunning fashion.

For the second straight week, the biggest favorite was knocked off. In Week 1, the Bengals were an 8.5-point home favorite against the Patriots and lost. In Week 2, the Ravens were as high as an 8.5-point home favorite against the Raiders and also lost.

This week, the 49ers are a 7.5-point road favorite against the Rams while the Bengals are a 7.5-point home favorite against the Commanders. Will we see one or both of these squads lose?

That’s relevant to people other than their fans. Survivor pools have been going up in smoke these first two weeks thanks to the big favorites losing. This past week, along with the Ravens loss, the Falcons stunned the Eagles in Philadelphia. Plenty of folks remain alive in Survivor pools, but it’s been rough sledding if you prefer chalk.

I suggested the Ravens as a safe pick in last week’s Survivor advice column, and that didn’t pan out at all. My best pick was noting the Lions over the Bucs felt like a trap game. I’m in a contest with three entries and used one of each on the Texans, Chargers, and Commanders. I went against my own advice for Washington, but it was a game-day hunch.

I’m back with another round of picks to hopefully get us through Week 3 of Survivor pools. If you have not played Survivor before, it’s a contest in which you pick one team to win each week. If your team wins in Week 1, you advance and can make a pick in Week 2. If your team loses you are eliminated. In many contests, a tie acts the same as a loss. Some leagues offer double elimination as an option. The biggest caveat is that in most leagues you cannot pick the same team twice during the season.

There are plenty of options to consider and every week this season we’ll be breaking down the safest picks, the best value picks, and the potential trap picks.

49ers over Rams
Bengals over Commanders

Yep, I’m calling the two favorites the safe picks. The Rams are now without Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. The Commanders beat the Giants last week, but struggled against the Bucs. I think Cincinnati is talented enough to get on track with their first win this week.

Buccaneers over Broncos
Browns over Giants

The Bucs have impressed through two weeks. You could save them for back-to-back road games against the Giants and Panthers in Weeks 12 and 13, but that’s a long ways off.

Cleveland isn’t a great team, but they face an awful Big Blue squad that is worth fading on the regular. There are few options for the Browns in future weeks, so now is not a bad time to use them. They’ll be a popular pick, but it could be worth using this option now.

Raiders over Panthers

I was all set to lock in the Panthers and Giants as the teams to pick against each week. We’re going to put a hold on that with Carolina for the time-being. The decision to bench Bryce Young and move Andy Dalton into the starting lineup opens the door for some underdog shenanigans. And given the Raiders are in a huge letdown spot after their big road win over the Ravens, you should probably stay away in most contests.