3 NFL upset picks for Week 4

Last week we decided here at SB Nation to roll out some weekly “upset specials.”

Well, we at least got one right.

Jared Mueller — perhaps with a bit of a “reverse jinx” — picked the New York Giants over the Cleveland Browns, a pick that turned out to be the one we got right in Week 3.

Can we do better in Week 4?

Time will tell, but here are our three upset picks for Week 4 of the 2024 NFL season.

Last week it looked as if things were going to go south in a hurry for the Los Angeles Rams. They were coming off a blowout loss to the Arizona Cardinals, injuries were piling up, and they headed back to Los Angeles for their home opener against the San Francisco 49ers.

Now they head to Chicago to take on Caleb Williams and the Bears fresh off their first win of the season, and with a little momentum. Los Angeles overcame a 14-point deficit in the second half, delivering a win they desperately needed.

Chicago is favored by three in this game, likely due to the home field advantage. But I like the Rams outright in this matchup.

Recently, Todd Bowles has become the Eagles, and Jalen Hurts specifically, boogeyman. His package of exotic blitzes and pressures consistently confuse the signal caller, and he ends up turning the Eagles into a punching bag. The Eagles are still favored by 2 in this one, but I think Tampa ends up winning this thing. Philly could potentially be without star receivers AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, making Hurts’ life a lot more difficult as a passer.

On the flip side, don’t expect as much 12 and 21 personnel from the Bucs like the Saints trotted out. The Bucs aren’t that great at running the ball, and this should be a game where Bucs QB Baker Mayfield ends up throwing to win. However, another big matchup awaits for Philly in the form of wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. I like Tampa here.

There are five undefeated teams in the NFL through three weeks, and one of them is somehow the Minnesota Vikings. Sam Darnold is on a Linsanity run right now: he leads the league in passing touchdowns with eight, and he’s putting up terrific marks in completion percentage, yards per attempt, and QB rating. Getting to throw to the NFL’s best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson certainly doesn’t help, and his matchup with Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander should be must see TV. The Packers have been playing great ball with Malik Willis at QB, largely thanks to the genius of head coach Matt LaFleur. The Packers’ running game has been lethal, but that stops this week: Minnesota ranks fifth against the run in EPA per rushing attempt. The Vikings’ shocking start lives to see one more week.