The Bills will beat Chiefs in AFC Championship Game for these 3 reasons

The Buffalo Bills have waited years for this moment. Now they’re back, and facing a familiar foe. Once again the fate of the AFC hinges on a game between the Bills and Chiefs, but this is the first time since 2021 that they’ve met in the Championship game.

For Buffalo this is about turning a page. Getting the monkey off their back. Finally slaying the football giant that has ended their season in three of the last four years. So what has changed? And why can this 2024 campaign end differently for the Bills than their past failures?

I know Bills fans bristle at the suggestion that anyone is better than Josh Allen, but there still exists a gulf between Patrick Mahomes at the top, and every other NFL quarterback. That said, it’s been an extremely disappointing year for Mahomes as an individual, with this season being the year the Chiefs’ front office might have pushed him too far with a lack of weapons on the offensive side of the ball.

Travis Kelce has been sporadically great, but he’s far from being the consistent, every-game threat the Chiefs have relied on him to be in recent years. Hollywood Brown being injured hurt the outside passing game, DeAndre Hopkins hasn’t really meshed with the offense yet, and a lot of pressure is being put on rookie Xavier Worthy to be a difference-maker.

The other side of the ball is a very different story. While there isn’t a true standout weapon for Josh Allen, he has a deep talent pool to pull from. The Bills thrive by essentially turning anyone into a threat depending on the down and distance, which has allowed for Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kinkaid, and more, to all succeed this season.

There is no question that Buffalo is better suited to play hard-nosed offensive football. James Cook had a breakout this season with a career-high 16 rushing touchdowns, while the ever-present threat of Josh Allen’s running ability can keep a defense off balance. It’s an element of this game the Chiefs’ simply can’t match, especially considering they rank 22nd in the NFL in rushing yards this season.

If the Bills can turn this game into a defensive battle where neither QB is able to make a difference through the air then they’ll win this easily. Buffalo is simply better equipped to pick up yards on the ground — and have a much better efficiency when it comes to their rushing offense vs. the Chiefs defense, and vice versa.

That disparity could make the difference.

The assumed NFL MVP for the 2024 season is the ultimate x-factor in this game. His dual-threat ability is something teams have to account for on every single down, and it’s going to put immense pressure on the Chiefs’ defensive line.

Allen had a stellar game in Week 11 against Kansas City when he threw for 262 yards, rushed for another 55, and scored two touchdowns in the Bills win. This shows that Joe Brady and the Buffalo offense knows how to target Steve Spagnuolo and KC.

The Bills QB has been comfortable taking on the role of playing hero ball more and more as the season has progressed, and it’s paid dividends. At this point the success of the Bills offense is inexorably tied to Allen, and he’s proved he can do it.

Most seasons it would be Mahomes who would have the edge against Allen, but not this year — and that could be the biggest difference-maker in the Bills win.