Vikings vs. Rams in NFL Playoffs will come down to this key matchup
Rams-Vikings is all about Matt Stafford vs. Brian Flores’ pass rush.
Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images
Matchup to watch: QB Matthew Stafford vs. DC Brian Flores
It’s good on good in the Monday night game, with the Vikings traveling to Los Angeles to face the Rams. For this matchup, I’m circling the battle between two of the best in the business: QB Matthew Stafford vs. Vikings’ DC Brian Flores. Stafford has been good this season, but as one of the old guards of NFL quarterbacking that hasn’t seen their play fall off a major cliff he still does one thing really well: he shreds blitzes. According to Sumer Sports, Stafford has the second highest success rate of any passer with 100 attempts when blitzed, only behind Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson. He also avoids sacks when blitzed, beating it with his mind and with an arm that hasn’t lost much juice. However, his numbers when pressured are a different story. His success rate goes from 2nd to 18th, and his sack rate when pressured vs blitzed jumps from 5.6% to 16.4%. The key for Flores and the Vikings is trying to get pressure, without having to send multiple guys at Stafford, because he’ll make you pay.
Stafford when blitzed vs Stafford when pressured
Year | EPA/play under pressure (rank) | Success Rate under pressure (rank) | Sack rate when pressured (rank) | Time to Throw when pressured (rank) | EPA/play vs blitz (rank) | SR vs blitz (rank) | Sack rate when blitzed (rank) | Time to throw when blitzed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -0.48 (20th) | 27.5% (18th) | 16.4% (7th) | 3s (T-3rd) | 0.22 (4th) | 52.5% (2nd) | 5.6% (5th) | 2.4s (4th) |
| 2023 | -0.37 (10th) | 26.6% (21st) | 19% (9th) | 2.9s (2nd) | -0.08 (22nd) | 40.1% (24th) | 6% (9th) | 2.4s (10th) |
Now when we talk about the Vikings, I want to make something clear: they play a 3-4 defense, which means sending five pass rushers is NOT a blitz. It’s their standard defense. So, using that to frame out how they played Stafford earlier this year, the Vikings sent a six or more pass rushers on two of Stafford’s 34 dropbacks. The result? Stafford had his second best game by Positive Play Rate of the season in the Rams’ win, and the Vikings 11.8% Pressure Rate on Stafford was the second lowest of the season. On these sim pressures and looks where they actually just bring four but are dropping, they have to affect Stafford to win this game. Stafford isn’t a spring chicken and won’t be as nimble in the pocket, so getting shots on Stafford have to be the key. When these two teams last played, the pressures weren’t getting home and Stafford had time to find the EDGE rusher that ended up dropping into coverage, like this play:
However, we’ve seen these type of pressures get to Stafford and the Rams before, especially with the offensive line play not being fully gelled together yet. For the Vikings to fluster Stafford and win this game, they’ll need a big game from EDGE Jonathan Greenard and the pass rush, needing to get home on these looks.
Individual matchup to watch: Vikings’ CB Byron Murphy vs. Rams’ WR Puka Nacua
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