Chances Of An ‘Ovechtrick’ Slim, But Not Totally Out Of Question
Nine goals in a game is just a ridiculous, insane number, and the commercial is obviously an over-the-top parody. But I’m sure a lot of people have asked this question. I know I have. Can an Ovechtrick actually happen?
Our friends at Capitals blog Russian Machine Never Breaks answered that very question.
To estimate his chances I will again use a Monte Carlo simulation to run 10,000 “games.” It starts with me using the shots on goal and shooting percentage during the regular season for Ovechkin during this season and the last two. Then I figure out how frequently these events occurred and let lady luck work her fickle magic.
As you would expect, the most frequent occurrence is the zero goal game, which happened in 6,493 games out of the 10,000 ran for the simulation, or 64.93%. Here are the rest:
And this chart writer Neil Greenberg put together shows the results.
So yes, there is a chance. A very, very slim chance. But it can happen.
In fact, it has happened in women’s hockey. In 2008, when Bulgaria fell to Slovakia by the ridiculous score of 82-0, Janka Culikova scored 10 goals, while Martina Velickova scored nine. Ovechtricks for everybody!
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