Another week, another highlight reel tally from Nashville’s Filip Forsberg. The kid keeps getting better.
NHL power rankings: The Predators and Islanders are for real
Here are this week’s power rankings, determined by a blend of recent success and long-term potential.For an explanation of some of the advanced stats used below, check out this primer.
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With 10 goals and 13 assists in 23 games, Forsberg is on track to win the Calder Trophy by a landslide. As NHL.com's Evan Sporer pointed out, the 20-year-old winger is off to the best start for a rookie since 2006-07, when Evgeni Malkin averaged 1.09 points per game. George McPhee is Washington's former general manager for a reason.
Forberg’s game-winner against Edmonton was fantastic in itself, but the shift that led to his goal was particularly noteworthy. It was, undoubtedly, one of the best individual efforts you’ll see all year.
It was also the kind of offensive performance Nashville has rarely seen from one of its own. In that 1:17 of ice time, Forsberg created a turnover, started two breakouts and helped generate three scoring chances -- the last of which resulted in a beautiful goal.
Risers
Much like its star rookie, Nashville appears to be for real. A 4-0-0 home stand brings its record to 16-5-2 -- good for the most points (34) in the NHL.
It's unlikely the Predators will remain in first place, but with strong possession metrics, elite goaltending and a worse-than-expected Central Division, it's hard to see them missing the playoffs. Time to take this club seriously.
But there are some concerns here -- poor special teams and lack of secondary scoring, for example -- but Nashville is excelling when it matters most: at even strength. Heading into Monday’s action they’re third in the NHL in score adjusted Corsi and fourth in 5-on-5 goal differential.
That differential is a credit to their improved offense as well as the Vezina-esque work from Pekka Rinne. Now fully recovered from last year’s rash of hip ailments, Rinne is playing some of the best hockey of his career.
If Poile can shore up his second and third lines -- ideally via trade -- the Preds might do some serious damage.
Speaking of up-and-comers, the Isles have been nothing short of fantastic in the early going, and are tied with Nashville (along with several others) atop the league standings.
Jaroslav Halak is proving to be a tremendous acquisition. He sports the eighth highest save percentage among qualifying netminders (.926) and is surrendering 2.13 goals per game. It's been quite a while since the Isles have had a backstop of Halak's caliber.
It’s worth noting New York is 20th in the NHL in 5-on-5 PDO. This indicates the Isles’ impressive record doesn’t stem from a wealth of puck luck, but rather from a talented group playing at a high level. Their possession numbers provide further evidence that they’re a legitimately good team.
Fallers
Thanksgiving was not kind to the Flyers. Losers of eight of its last nine and two straight over the holiday, Philadelphia has plummeted down the Eastern Conference standings. As of Monday, it has just one more point than Buffalo.
The Flyers are dealing with a litany of problems, few of which can be easily corrected. Three forward lines have been ineffective. Not only is the defense thin, but Andrew MacDonald is in the lineup about half the time. Their penalty kill is horrendous.
The list goes on and on.
#Flyers say Berube not to blame "It's not his fault we can't skate." http://t.co/PgEi2N27ze
— Dave Isaac (@davegisaac) November 30, 2014 It’s will be extremely difficult to climb out of this hole, as they are already seven points out of eighth place. And the worst may still be to come: this week’s schedule includes games in Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim.
Philly's last win came on Nov. 15 against the Blue Jackets, who are currently mired in a six-game losing streak. This porous stretch has dropped them to the bottom of the NHL standings.
One could argue that Columbus has been unlucky. Its 5-on-5 PDO (96.5) has to rise at some point. The same could be said for its league-worst even-strength goal differential (35.3).
Yes, signs may point to brighter days ahead. For now, though, the Jackets are in trouble.
Perhaps most importantly, Sergei Bobrovsky needs to improve between the pipes. History suggests he's far better than his stats indicate, but it's hard not to be concerned: Bobrovsky went winless in his last five starts and posted a save percentage above .900 once in that stretch.
Depth scoring is a huge issue, as well. 11 CBJ forwards who have played at least 100 minutes have three goals or less.
Of note
- Could Devan Dubnyk be Arizona's savior? Mike Smith's backup has won five of seven and has the 10th best save percentage in the league.
- Buffalo has defied many odds and won five of six. Don't expect this to last, though; the Sabres are still getting dominated in shot differential. Just look at Saturday's win over the Habs: Buffalo took 42 shot attempts to Montreal's 90.
- After taking down LA and Anaheim, the Blackhawks have won six of seven and seem to have found their stride. It was only a matter of time. Chicago's low shooting percentage was bound to rise -- especially since it takes more shot attempts than anyone else by a healthy margin.
- Kyle Okposo has 21 points in 24 games despite a 6.5 shooting percentage. Look for him to light the lamp more frequently as the season progresses.
- It's starting to look like the Red Wings playoff streak will continue. Detroit's defense has been especially good: only Tampa is allowing less unblocked shot attempts per game at even strength.
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