The Colorado Avalanche are not a good hockey team, this much we know is true. Regression hit this group hard, and its shooting and save percentages have come crashing down from last year, when a sky-high PDO lifted the Avs to a division championship. Major changes are needed to prevent such a debacle from happening again.
Ryan O’ Reilly will be key to Avalanche success ... even if he’s traded
Ryan O’Reilly’s time with the Avalanche may be drawing to a close, but it doesn’t mean he won’t play a role in the team’s future.
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One change that’s been discussed is dealing center Ryan O’Reilly, whose production has dropped quite a bit from 2013-14. Many believed that O’Reilly was a franchise cornerstone in the making after registering 64 points (28 goals, 36 assists) last season, along with six points in seven playoffs games. A slow start this year (26 points in 48 games) has quelled that praise for the time being.
Low output aside, there is evidence that suggests O’Reilly is doing fine. His relative shot differential is among the best on the Avalanche, and he’s still putting pucks on net at a respectable rate. Additionally, no other forward on his team is facing stiffer competition in terms of time on ice percentage at even strength.
And his offense hasn’t dropped off the table. He’s still on pace for more than 40 points.
The biggest difference between this year and last is his shooting percentage: O’Reilly is converting on only 8.8 percent of his shots, down from 13.9. Maintaining a shooting percentage is not a repeatable talent, so if this is the primary reason why his stats have dipped, odds are he’s going to bounce back and stabilize in the long run.
Based solely on the numbers, it would be wise for the Avs to keep O’Reilly and soldier through this rough patch together. But it’s never that simple.
O'Reilly and Colorado have been at odds in the past; their most recent dispute led him to sign a two-year, $10 million offer sheet with the Flames. His dad got involved, media attention didn't help ... the whole situation got really messy. This tension, as well as financial disagreements, may make a breakup inevitable.
If O’Reilly is on the block, several teams would be interested in acquiring him before the upcoming trade deadline. Arizona, Buffalo and Toronto have reportedly expressed interest in him, and more teams would likely join the fray if he is made available. After all, he wouldn’t be the first — nor the last — NHL forward to break out in his early 20s, hit a bump in the road and ultimately find his way under the proper guidance. And with another season left on his contract — he doesn’t become an unrestricted free agent until 2016 — he could be more than just a rental.
Moving him won’t be easy, though. One of Bob McKenzie’s sources said, “If you’re trading for [O’Reilly] now and giving up what Colorado expects to get, you better know you have [O’Reilly] signed to that extension.” By that extension, he’s referring to the big payday O’Reilly expects to receive as he nears his prime -- one estimated to be worth between $6.5 and $7.5 million per year.
This naturally complicates any potential swap.
Furthermore, unloading someone at O’Reilly’s age is often a dangerous proposition. Management would look foolish if he leaves town, blossoms into a star and the return proves to be anything short of fantastic. As Boston recently learned, it’s difficult to win a trade when you give up the best player in exchange for a package of lesser assets.
Undoubtedly, Colorado needs to get this right.
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