When reports surfaced Wednesday night that the Detroit Red Wings planned to give forward Justin Abdelkader a seven-year contract extension, it was met with obvious trepidation. Long-term contracts are handed out too often in the NHL to players who are on the decline in their careers. Just take a look at the situation Columbus is in with David Clarkson and Nick Foligno, who are both older than 28 and were both dealt long-term contracts of more than six years and $33 million.
Justin Abdelkader is not worth his new 7-year, $30 million contract
The 28-year-old forward is a solid part of Detroit’s lineup, but is he worth the long-term extension?
Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
Tying up players in the later stages of their careers can be difficult. It’s a give and take between teams that don’t want to see one of their top point scorers leave for free agency and players who want as much job security as they can get. Often times, the player wins out, getting a deal that’s long enough to extend into their mid-to-late 30s. These deals make it hard to move players thanks to the big contracts they carry, especially years down the road when the player no longer produces at the level of his salary.
Bad contracts are a true staple in the NHL because there isn’t one GM in this league who hasn’t made you want to cringe with a deal since the start of the salary cap era. It happens to them all, even to the best of them, and it probably happened to Ken Holland of the Red Wings in this Abdelkader deal.
Still, now that it’s official, is there any upside to Abdelkader’s new seven-year, $4.25 million AVV deal?
The Good
Right off the bat, details have come out from ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun that Abdelkader’s deal is front loaded, with at least $20 million of the $29.75 coming in the first four years. With much of the money coming up front, it might make it easier to unload Abdelkader to a willing team should his numbers drop past that threshold. ESPN’s Craig Custance also reports that Abdelkader will have a no-trade clause during the first four years with a partial NTC in the final three. The details are not as bad as many feared, so there is something positive to hang your hats on.
While it’s not inherently good, locking up Abdelkader was clearly a goal of Holland’s this season. The forward is in the midst of a contract year and would have hit the UFA market at the end of this season. It may certainly not be an ideal contract, but it’s one both parties could agree on to keep Abdelkader in Detroit where he’s making an impact.
The Bad
Fifteen games into a show-me season for Abdelkader, the forward only has seven points. After breaking out last season with career highs in goals (23), assists (21) and points (44), Abdelkader has cooled off significantly to start this year. The forward is on a 13-game goalless drought, having scored his last one Oct. 10 against Carolina, with this first three goals coming in the season opener against Toronto a day prior.
While his statistics to start this contract year are not ideal, the terms aren’t much better. By the time the newest seven-year deal will be up, Abdelkader will be 35-years-old with over a $4 million cap hit. Not many players see much NHL ice time by the time they’re 35, and if they do they’re cleaning up in the bottom six of the lineup. The contract will most certainly be hard to move if Abdelkader cannot compete to its level in the latter years, despite the front loading.
The money is not so much the issue as the length. A cap hit of $4.25 million isn't too egregious, as it puts him on par with defenseman Jonathan Ericsson's hit for sixth-highest on the team starting in the 2016-17 season. It absolutely muddles around with Detroit's cap situation, and the Wings are already the fifth-closest team in the NHL to the salary cap this season. No doubt this contract will impact future deals made with Tomas Tatar next season and Danny Dekeyser this year. Whether the Red Wings will have to let some players walk due to the lack of space remains to be seen, but long term contracts always come with this potential price.
The length, on the other hand, is too long for a player of Abdelkader’s caliber and the point totals he has shown thus far. The Red Wings just extended a player into his mid-30s who has just one 40-point season under his belt at the current age of 28. Abdelkader doesn’t even have a 30-point season outside of last year’s break out, with his closest being 28 points in the 2013-14 season. So far in this contract year, the forward has disappeared after a really strong first two games, with just two points -- both assists -- in his last 13 games.
Plus, Abdelkader plays a physical style of hockey, a bruising brand that increases his likelihood of slowing down in his later years with a bigger risk to injury. Hockey players are known to drop off quite rapidly in their 30s and this contract will see Abdelkader through the bulk of that time frame.
Maybe this new deal is all Abdelkader needs to find that scoring touch again, as there’s still time for the forward to find his legs this year. However, this bad contract will likely overshadow anything Abdelkader does from here on out through the next seven years in Detroit. Unless he finds -- and maintains -- that gear that has only shown itself just once in his career, this contract will probably end up on the bad side of history for Ken Holland.
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