Colin Wilson enjoying breakout season for resurgent Predators

Before this season began, before we had any idea Nashville could be a legitimate winner, the hockey world largely perceived Colin Wilson as a massive disappointment. It was a harsh label, but nonetheless deserved.

Wilson finished 2013-14 with just 11 goals and 22 assists in 81 games -- not exactly the numbers expected from a former seventh overall pick. Instead of evolving a quality forward he often looked lost and overwhelmed, snake-bitten and frustrated.

Eventually, the question progressed from “when will he put it all together?” to “will he ever put it all together?”

Those who were optimistic about Wilson’s abilities were quick to cite his performance in the lockout shortened 2013 campaign, when he earned 19 points in 25 contests. But even then there were red flags, including his unsustainable shooting percentage (26.9) that would’ve undoubtedly crashed had he not gone down with a shoulder injury.

Yes, we had many reasons to be pessimistic about his short- and long-term prospects, and the evidence that he was capable of developing into a consistent, productive option was flimsy at best. Many, including myself, were prepared to write him off as a bust.

Suffice it to say, he’s making us skeptics look like fools.

Under Peter Laviolette, whose aggressive, offensive-minded system caters to Wilson’s skill set, the 25-year-old has been a pleasant surprise thus far in 2014-15. He’s tallied 17 goals and 19 assists in 49 games, good for first and fourth on the Preds, respectively. As Thomas Willis pointed out, he’s tied for the league lead in points (23) since Dec. 22.

And, contrary to 2012-13, Wilson’ thriving with a maintainable shooting percentage (15.2) and a cool on-ice shooting percentage (10.7). He appears to be a new man, one who’s living up to the lofty expectations bestowed upon him at the 2008 Draft.

Now the question is, “what’s changed?”

“I think I’ve just changed my style of game and putting pucks in the net,” Wilson told Fox Sports Tennessee. “If I don’t have the puck, I’m trying to be around the net. That’s where things happen as opposed to being a little bit more on the perimeter.”

Wilson believes he’s spending more time near the opponent’s crease, and the stats support his claim. This can be illustrated by comparing a few of his Hextally graphs from 2013-14 (left) and 2014-15 (right), courtesy of War On Ice.

The differences are astounding. He’s putting a lot more pucks on net, and doing so from close range.

This has predictably resulted in more scoring chances. In fact, his on-ice SCF% (60.1) at even strength is the best in the NHL among forwards who have skated in at least 400 minutes during five-on-five. With 101 individual scoring chances at even strength, he ranks 40th overall.

This is a testament to his offensive ability as well as his improved defense: He’s now 11th in the league in five-on-five SCA/60 (21.2) among the same batch of players. He’s also suppressing shots at a far better rate than he did last season.

Again, pretty clear growth.

Another useful way to measure Wilson’s performance is to view it in relation to the league’s entire crop of forwards. The most recent version of Rob Vollman’s Hockey Abstract helps us do this by breaking skater into four tiers -- one for each line -- based on even strength data from the 2013-14 season.

The tiers were created equally based on time on ice, which works for our purposes since better players tend to see more action than their lesser counterparts. Though not a perfect measurement, TOI is a good proxy for talent in this kind of analysis.

Here is how the numbers look (five-on-five numbers only):

Wilson’s even strength output has more or less gone from fourth line-caliber to first line-caliber. As previously mentioned, he’s not enjoying an abundance of luck, so it’s fair to assert that he’s made lots of big, demonstrable strides on his own.

This is great news for the Predators, who, with Wilson, Mike Ribeiro, James Neal, Craig Smith, Mike Fisher and Filip Forsberg, suddenly have a top-six worth envying.