The Norris Trophy is perhaps the most debated award of the 2015-16 season so far. Sure, the Calder has its spread of rookies to choose from, but the award for the best defenseman has had lines drawn in the sand for months. Hockey’s own versions of #TeamCap or #TeamIronMan, if you will.
The NHL’s defenseman of the year is a choice between two opposing forces
Voters will have to decide what they value most in a defenseman: offensive skill or defensive prowess.
Claus Andersen/Getty Images
Of course, we're referring to Erik Karlsson and Drew Doughty, but we'll get to them in a moment. Over this past week, we've found a deep Jack Adams field and a Vezina Trophy race that's been elevated by the spectacular goaltending that has highlighted the season.
Now, we dive into the hotly contested Norris Trophy debate. However, is the field as two-sided as they say?
Frontrunners
The Captain America of this debate, Karlsson has the history and the numbers to win this award. His 82 points in 82 games is the most since Nicklas Lidstrom hit the 80 mark 10 years ago. Karlsson is also the first player to hit 82 since Brian Leetch and Ray Bourque did so 20 years ago. Not only that, Karlsson is the first defenseman to lead the league in assists (66) since Bobby Orr in 1974-75.
On a terrible Senators team, Karlsson makes a world of difference in terms of possession. His possession numbers are not as strong as his competitors’, but what Karlsson is able to do on such a weak Ottawa team is nothing short of remarkable.
The difference between the Senators with Karlsson on the ice and off it was truly staggering this season. pic.twitter.com/tGNTqTyT0W
— Nicholas W. Goss (@NickGossNESN) April 13, 2016
Drew Doughty, Los Angles Kings
The Iron Man to Karlsson’s Captain America, Doughty is the answer to the detractors that say the Norris shouldn’t be won on offensive merit alone. Doughty ranks ninth among defenders this year with 51 points in 82 games, but is first among defenseman in CorsiFor% without question.
For many, Doughty is “due” for a Norris after multiple snub jobs over the years. Karlsson has two wins already, and many believe it’s Doughty’s time for recognition. Doughty is certainly a strong defenseman, and in many ways the opposite of Karlsson. Defensive minded instead of offensively inclined, part of a strong Kings system vs. a standout on a bad Senators team. Very Civil War, if you ask me.
Did you think this was a two-horse race? Sure, Doughty and Karlsson have garnered the most attention, but there are a few other strong contenders that can fill out the nomination list.
Letang is the first. The Penguins defender is second overall in points per game by a defenseman this year with 67 in 71 games played and his 51 assists are second only to Karlsson. What’s so incredible about Letang was how bad his season was to begin with, coupled with an injury in December. Since the turn of the calendar, Letang has scored 48 of his 67 points, enough to put him right in contention with Karlsson and Doughty. Letang has also been a solid defender possession wise, with a 64.14 CorsiFor per 60 that has him just two spots below Doughty in the top 10, according to Corsica.
The big-bearded defenseman from San Jose rounds out the Norris favorites for this season. Burns is second to Karlsson in points this year with 75, just seven points off of the Ottawa defender’s pace. The Sharks blue-liner leads all defensemen with 27 goals and 30 points on the power play. Burns also outshoots any NHL defenseman by a mile, as his 353 shots taken this season eclipse Karlsson by over 100.
His possession numbers don’t stack as high as Doughty or Letang, but his overall consistent year on the blue line combined with playing all 82 games this year might get him in over the Penguins defenseman.
Dark Horses
Outside of the top four, it’s hard to imagine any of the handful of second-tier contenders making it into the nomination stage with the stiff competition above them. Unlike some of the other awards we’ve previewed and predicted, the distinction between the front-runners and the rest of the pack is as clear as night and day.
There certainly are other worthy defensemen eligible for the nomination this year, from the likes of Victor Hedman and Oliver Ekman-Larsson to Dustin Byfuglien. However, the field is wide open behind the four front-runners and no one defender has stood out among the rest of the candidates to challenge those at the top. We all know Karlsson and Doughty are going to gather the most attention for this award anyway, so there's no reason to add more noise to this debate. There's always next year.
And the nominees will be ...
Karlsson, Doughty and Burns. The first two are givens and Burns sneaks in over Letang based on the body of work shown this season. The real question is who wins, Karlsson or Doughty?
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